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Lessons from the calibration and sensitivity analysis of a fish larval transport model
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ABSTRACT: Numerous fish populations show strong year-to-year variations in recruitment. The early life stages play a crucial role in determining recruitment and dispersal patterns. A helpful tool to understand recruitment and dispersal involves simulations with a Lagrangian transport model, which results from the coupling between a hydrodynamic model and an individual-based model. Larval transport models require sound knowledge of the biological processes governing larval dispersal, and they may be highly sensitive to the parameters selected. Various assumptions about larval traits, behaviour and other model parameters can be tested by comparing simulation results with field data to identify the most sensitive parameters and to improve model calibration. This study shows that biological parameterization is more important than inter-annual variability in explaining the year-to-year differences in larval recruitment of common sole in the North Sea and the eastern English Channel. In contrast, year-to-year variability of connectivity leads to higher variability than changes in the biological parameters. The most influential parameters are pelagic larval duration, spawning period and mortality. Calibration over a 12 yr recruitment survey shows that a scenario with low mortality associated with a long larval duration and behaviour involving nycthemeral and tidal migration best reproduces the observations. This research provides insights into factors influencing fish dispersal and recruitment, suggesting a strategy for enhancing the accuracy of models in upcoming studies. The study supports the improvement of larval dispersal modelling by incorporating an easily applicable sensitivity analysis for both calibration and validation. Incorporating sensitivity analyses enhances larval dispersal models, providing performing tools that can contribute to informed fisheries management and understanding of recruitment variability.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Lettre Ă Jules. Un grand coup de chapeau...
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RBINS Staff Publications
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Leveraging ecosystem restoration for zoonotic spillover risk mitigation
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As disease regulation is a key ecosystem service, it is crucial that we better understand the role that restoring landscapes can play in reducing disease risks. Ongoing One Health studies suggest that declining biodiversity and increasing zoonotic pathogen spill-over risk are linked. Restoration processes normally aim at increasing species diversity, wherefore it is assumed that pathogens will be diluted in restored ecosystems, hence reducing the risk of zoonotic spillover. Nonetheless, the developing species composition during restorative processes will impact dilution-amplification effects. To estimate the threshold beyond which a restored ecosystem can be considered to have reached the pathogen dilution phase, it is crucial to characterise the communities of hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens, at the different stages of recovery of an ecosystem. Using interdisciplinary methods, this project has the dual aim of examining the amplification-dilution of zoonotic pathogens in a mangrove forest of the western Peninsular Malaysia, and to estimate the frequency and duration of exposure of local communities to this hazard, so as to best mitigate the risk of zoonotic pathogen spillover.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2025
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Limitations for informed decision making and better management of the transboundary Lake Albert fisheries resources
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RBINS Staff Publications 2023 OA
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Limitations of Predicting Substrate Classes on a Sedimentary Complex but Morphologically Simple Seabed
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RBINS Staff Publications 2020
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Limited historical admixture between European wildcats and domestic cats
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Summary Domestic cats were derived from the Near Eastern wildcat (Felis lybica), after which they dispersed with people into Europe. As they did so, it is possible that they interbred with the indigenous population of European wildcats (Felis silvestris). Gene flow between incoming domestic animals and closely related indigenous wild species has been previously demonstrated in other taxa, including pigs, sheep, goats, bees, chickens, and cattle. In the case of cats, a lack of nuclear, genome-wide data, particularly from Near Eastern wildcats, has made it difficult to either detect or quantify this possibility. To address these issues, we generated 75 ancient mitochondrial genomes, 14 ancient nuclear genomes, and 31 modern nuclear genomes from European and Near Eastern wildcats. Our results demonstrate that despite cohabitating for at least 2,000 years on the European mainland and in Britain, most modern domestic cats possessed less than 10% of their ancestry from European wildcats, and ancient European wildcats possessed little to no ancestry from domestic cats. The antiquity and strength of this reproductive isolation between introduced domestic cats and local wildcats was likely the result of behavioral and ecological differences. Intriguingly, this long-lasting reproductive isolation is currently being eroded in parts of the species’ distribution as a result of anthropogenic activities.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2023
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Living species of the genera Chicomurex Arakawa, 1964 and Naquetia Jousseaume, 1880 (Gastropoda: Muricidae) in the Indo-West Pacific
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RBINS Staff Publications 2021
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Local perceptions on the state of the pelagic fisheries and fisheries management in Uvira, Lake Tanganyika, DR Congo
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RBINS Staff Publications 2020
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Locomotor behavior of Paleocene mammals: Insights from the semicircular canals of the inner ear
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The end-Cretaceous mass extinction triggered the collapse of ecosystems and a drastic turnover in mammalian communities leading to the demise of many ecologically specialized species. While Mesozoic mammals were ecomorphologically diverse, recognizable ecological richness was only truly established in the Eocene. Questions remain about the ecology of the first wave of mammals radiating after the extinction. Here, we use the semicircular canals of the inner ear as a proxy for locomotor behavior. Thirty new inner ear virtual endocasts were generated using high-resolution computed tomography scanning. This sample was supplemented by data from the literature to construct a dataset of 79 fossils spanning the Jurassic to the Eocene alongside 262 extant mammals. Vestibular sensitivity was measured using the radius of curvature against body mass and the residuals of this relationship were analyzed. The petrosal lobule size relative to body mass were compared with the inner ear data as they have a role in maintaining gaze stabilization during motion. Paleocene mammals exhibited smaller canal radius of curvature, compared to Mesozoic, Eocene, and extant taxa. In the early Paleocene, canal radius and associated petrosal lobules were relatively smaller on average compared to other temporal groups, suggesting less ability for fast movements. Our results support previous work on tarsal morphology and locomotor behavioral ancestral state reconstructions suggesting that ground dwelling mammalian species were more common than arboreal taxa during the Paleocene. Ultimately, this may indicate that the collapse of forested environments immediately after extinction led to the preferential survivorship of more terrestrially adapted mammals.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2023
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Long-term succession on offshore wind farms and the role of species interactions
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RBINS Staff Publications 2023