Multi-model ensembles for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface currents (SSC), and water transports have been developed for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea using outputs from several operational ocean forecasting models provided by different institutes. The individual models differ in model code, resolution, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and data assimilation. The ensembles are produced on a daily basis. Daily statistics are calculated for each parameter giving information about the spread of the forecasts with standard deviation, ensemble mean and median, and coefficient of variation. High forecast uncertainty, i.e., for SSS and SSC, was found in the Skagerrak, Kattegat (Transition Area between North Sea and Baltic Sea), and the Norwegian Channel. Based on the data collected, longer-term statistical analyses have been done, such as a comparison with satellite data for SST and evaluation of the deviation between forecasts in temporal and spatial scale. Regions of high forecast uncertainty for SSS and SSC have been detected in the Transition Area and the Norwegian Channel where a large spread between the models might evolve due to differences in simulating the frontal structures and their movements. A distinct seasonal pattern could be distinguished for SST with high uncertainty between the forecasts during summer. Forecasts with relatively high deviation from the multi-model ensemble (MME) products or the other individual forecasts were detected for each region and each parameter. The comparison with satellite data showed that the error of the MME products is lowest compared to those of the ensemble members.
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RBINS Staff Publications
During the preventive archaeological excavation in the cellar of the site of petite Rue des Bouchers in the historical centre of Brussels (Belgium), the waterlogged remains of a thirteenth century AD sunken byre (potstal) were discovered. The exceptional preservation instigated a multiproxy approach, including micro-archaeology, micromorphology, phytolith and endoparasite egg analysis on thin sections, palynology and the study of plant macroremains on the fill of the structure. Beyond permitting to detail the content and the multiple origins of the fill (including excremental waste and urines, fodder and bedding material, plaggen and/or soil sods, household and construction waste), this study also provides detailed insights into the foddering customs, hygienic conditions within the stable, and the health status of the animals kept. On a more general scale this study documented late medieval farming practices in Brussels, more specifically the need to collect substantial amounts of manure to add as fertilizer onto the cultivated poor sandy soils.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2025
Using the most comprehensive fish occurrence database, we evaluated the importance of ecological and historical drivers in diversity patterns of subdrainage basins across the Amazon system. Linear models reveal the influence of climatic conditions, habitat size and sub-basin isolation on species diversity. Unexpectedly, the species richness model also highlighted a negative upriver-downriver gradient, contrary to predictions of increasing richness at more downriver locations along fluvial gradients. This reverse gradient may be linked to the history of the Amazon drainage network, which, after isolation as western and eastern basins throughout the Miocene, only began flowing eastward 1–9 million years (Ma) ago. Our results suggest that the main center of fish diversity was located westward, with fish dispersal progressing eastward after the basins were united and the Amazon River assumed its modern course toward the Atlantic. This dispersal process seems not yet achieved, suggesting a recent formation of the current Amazon system.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2019
