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Geological databases resulting from the merging of various data sources and time periods jeopardize harmonization of data products. Data standardization is already common practice and a first step in avoiding semantic overlap. European marine data management infrastructures provide such standards, e.g., Geo-Seas (http://www.geo-seas.eu/) for geological data and SeaDataNet (https://www.seadatanet.org/) for marine metadata in general. In addition, metadata quality control is important, though data uncertainty is seldom quantified and to be used in modelling. Preliminary uncertainty analyses were worked out to provide an extra dimension to the cross-border 3D voxel models of the geological subsurface of the Belgian and southern Netherlands part of the North Sea (http://odnature.naturalsciences.be/tiles/). Starting from simple quality flagging in geological databases and model uncertainty calculations (probability and entropy) in the 3D modelling, data uncertainty (e.g., related to qualities in positioning, sampling and vintage) is now quantified. Combining all uncertainties remains a challenge, as well as communicating their importance in decision making. A demonstration will be given on the status of the uncertainty analyses and how these are incorporated in a newly developed decision support tool allowing interactive querying of the 3D voxel model, now comprising geological, as well as entropy, probability and data uncertainty attributes (figure 1).

The presence of the piston-pumping polychaete Lanice conchilega can induce short term oscillations in oxygen and nitrate availability at deeper sediment layers, affecting the functional properties of local microbial communities. Here, we investigated the effect of Lanice conchilega densities on the expression of the nosZ gene, a gene encoding for the enzymes involved in the last step (reduction of N2O) of the denitrification pathway. Sediments with “high” , “low” and no Lanice individuals were collected from the intertidal and incubated submerged (reflecting the high water tide) in the lab, to measure vertical oxygen profiles and oxygen oscillations during 35 minutes at 1.5 mm sediment depth before slicing the sediment, and extracting RNA for Illumina sequencing the nosZ gene. We found 502 unique amino acid sequences (“nosZ-UAT), only 21 of them were abundant (>1% relative abundance). nosZ-AUT based community analyses showed that high densities of Lanice significantly affected the nosZ transcript composition. In addition, higher variability was observed in the high density treatments as well. Further differences were observed between the top layer of the sediment (0-0.5 cm) and the investigated deeper layers. The difference in nosZ-AUT Shannon diversity between deeper sediment layers and the upper sediment layer increased with Lanice density. The observed differences in nosZ-AUT composition and diversity at small horizontal (m) and vertical (cm) scale can thus be attributed to differences in bio-irrigator densities. We hypothese that this due to stronger oscillations of both O2 and NO3- availability in the presence of high densities of bio-irrigators. Oscillations of O2 concentrations at a single spot in otherwise anoxic environments create microhabitats where coupled nitrification-denitrification is possible, while providing the environment with NO3- provides substrate for denitrification. As such, the presence of high densities of bio-irrigators increase the effect of already reported tide-related redox oscillations during periods of submersion.

EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT TAXONOMIC LEVELS AS SURROGATES OF ANT DIVERSITY IN GREEN AREAS IN AN URBANIZED ENVIRONMENT E. B. A. KOCH1, T. S. MELO2,3,4, A. R. S. ANDRADE2,3, M. LEPONCE5 & J. H. C. DELABIE2,4 1Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana (UEFS), CEP: 44.036-900 - Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil, e-mail: elmoborges@gmail.com; 2Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil; 3Centro de Ecologia e Conservação Animal, Universidade Católica do Salvador (UCSal), Salvador, Bahia, Brazil; 4Laboratório de Mirmecologia, Convênio Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (UESC)/Comissão Executiva do Plano da Lavoura Cacaueira (CEPLAC), Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil; 5Biodiversity Monitoring & Assessment, Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Bruxelas, Belgium. In cities located in environments of high biological importance, urbanization leads to changes in biotic diversity, while monitoring these changes can be difficult. Studies have pointed to the use of metrics that replace species as an alternative. Surrogate models are easily determined measures of biodiversity that correlate strongly with species richness and with what you want to investigate, being useful for detecting or monitoring environmental changes. The use of higher taxonomic levels has been applied to groups of megadiverse organisms, such as arthropods, since difficulties in identifying species are predictable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the practicality of using taxonomic diversity of ants as a surrogate of green area coverage in an urban environment. Four levels of "surrogate resolutions" (subfamily, genus, indicator taxa, and intermediate resolution) were assessed to the taxonomic diversity of ants across three levels of urban green areas (Small = 0 to 35%

The KB186 well (GSB 047W0264, Lommel-Kerkhoven) is situated in the northern part of the Campine Basin (NE Belgium) to the west of the Donderslag fault and has been studied and sampled in detail from a depth of 1182.72 meters to 1197.75 metres. The objective is to examine the sedimentological, petrographical, mineralogical and petrophysical characteristics and their variations within and between two cyclothems. 17 shale samples were taken throughout the entire section, varying from roof shales, over dark organic-rich shales with siderite enrichments, to bluish-grey shales without no visible organic content. Two sedimentary cycles have been recognised. Macroscopically, they show some similarities and differences in facies and sedimentological trends. Both are approximately 6.5 metres thick and contain sections of mainly shale deposits (with or without siderite enrichments). Fining-upwards sequences of fine sand and clayey silt and larger sandstone bodies occur between these shale-rich sections. A petrographical assessment by means of optical light and electron microscopy is conducted for a qualitative analysis of the mineralogical composition and diagenetic history, while a quantitative determination is made by means of x-ray diffractometry. Important mineralogical reservoir parameters are the relative amounts of silica and quartz, and the clay mineralogy with special attention to smectite and illite.

Acoustic interaction theory and observation highlight the strong relation between the acoustic signal responses and the physical and biological processes acting on the seafloor and in the water column. Several descriptors such as sediment texture, porosity and surface roughness are identified as the main factors affecting the acoustic reverberation and backscatter signals. Shells can influence if not dominate the scattering on the seafloor(Jackson et al., 1986; Stanic et al., 1989 and Zhang, 1996). Scattering from both inclusions and partially buried shells on the sea-floor is described by Stanton (2000), and scattering from shells as a potential mechanism explaining the scattering above 200 kHz is highlighted by Ivakin (2009). In order to improve the knowledge on this matter, several institutions with different expertise are cooperating to integrate mathematical modeling and experimental results to better quantify the influence of shells and shell debris on the acoustic signal and scattering of sonar images. Mathematical 3D models of shell objects in a sediment matrix will be used to simulate the influence of the shells on acoustic signal and scattering. The physical arrangements of shells and their spatio-temporal population trends are also considered in the modeling. The models will be supported by direct sonar measurements of seafloor areas on the Belgian Continental Shelf, combined with sampling, visual observations, classification and shape analysis of the shells and shell debris.

The development of geothermal energy is below the European National Renewable Energy Action Plans' anticipated trajectory. For deep geothermal energy projects in particular, multiple sources of uncertainty in combination with high upfront investment costs result in a major investment risk, hampering the mobilization of required capital (Compernolle et al., 2019). The uncertainty sources include market uncertainty, uncertainty regarding new technologies and uncertainty inherent to working with subsurface data. The objectives of the DESIGNATE project for deep geothermal systems in Belgium, including applications in abandoned mines are two folds. First, to create tools for integrated forecasts under uncertainty and second to set-up a methodological framework for territorial Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) considering surface and subsurface impacts. To do so, analytical reservoir models will be developed to assess the effect of uncertainties about geological data and concepts on the performance and impact of the geothermal applications. These will be coupled with a techno-economic analysis in combination with a territorial, environmental life cycle analysis. To evaluate the impact of different policy measures, the techno-economic analysis consists of a Monte Carlo simulation model that integrates both market and geological uncertainties and a project developers' option to wait or abandon the geothermal project development at different steps in the development of the project (Welkenhuysen et al., this conference). As a preliminary step, the influence of the rollout time of a heat network on the risk and on the profitability is investigated. At the start often only a part of the district heating network is in place at the time of commissioning and the geothermal plant operates at much lower capacity. Part of the capacity is foreseen for district heating networks linked to residential districts expected to be built or renovated in the near future. In this research, the change in income of a project considering a stepwise rollout of a district heating network compared to a full load from the start, in combination with a reduced maximum capacity of the geothermal plant compared to the expected output is calculated. This is done with a simplified spreadsheet techno-economic model, limiting variability to the rollout scenarios. For the calculation, data provided by the project developer HITA of the Turnhout NW geothermal project is used. In the next section the four cases used to evaluate the risk and profitability linked to the changes in the rollout time of a heat network are described. In the first case, the base case, the production plant is assumed to work at full capacity once the construction of the geothermal plant is achieved. Full capacity means that the production plant will be working at 100% during the heating season. Additional production for cooling or for heat storage in summertime are not taken into account. The second case considers that the maximum production capacity is 20% lower than in the first case due to lower-than-expected reservoir temperature or flow rate. In the third case, the full capacity is equal to the one of the base case but will be reached in three steps, simulating a growing demand by adding new district heating networks. The demand is expressed as a percentage of the expected maximum production capacity of the geothermal plant. At the start of production, the geothermal plant runs at 50%. After 5 years this is increased to 75% and after 10 years full capacity is reached. The fourth and last case is similar to the third case, with a stepwise increase of the demand, but the maximum production capacity is, as in second case, 20% lower. Because the demand is lower than the total capacity in the first 10 years, the production plant will however be able to supply the required energy. Only after 10 years when the demand rises to the expected maximum production capacity, only 80% of the required energy can be delivered without additional investments. As such, the income of the project will be the same the first 10 years compared to the third case. In a best-case scenario, demand and rollout of a district heating network will be fast and the production plant will run at full capacity during the heating season from the start (case 1). This is however unlikely and assuming this to be the base case will result in many projects not reaching predetermined targets, as the income of the project will be lower during the first years of production. In this respect, the third case or a similar scenario is a better option to use as a base case. This will put more stringent conditions on the expected output parameters of the production well to ensure an economic viable project, and hence provide a more realistic outlook. When using case 3 as the base case this also has the complementary benefit of reducing the risk related to the maximum production capacity. If the real maximum production capacity is lower than expected, the reduction of income will be lower than the decrease in the maximum production capacity. In other words, a reduction of 20% of the maximum production capacity will not lead to a reduction of 20% of the income, but will be between 0 and 20%, depending on the interest rate and on the time frame to reach full capacity. Acknowledgments This research is carried out under the DESIGNATE project, which receives funding from the BELSPO BRAIN-be 2.0 research programme under contract nr B2/191/P1/DESIGNATE. HITA kindly provided input for the development for this case study. References Compernolle, T., Welkenhuysen, K., Petitclerc, E., Maes, D. & Piessens, K., 2019. The impact of policy measures on geothermal energy investments. Energy Economics, 84, 104524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104524 Welkenhuysen, K., Compernolle, T., Kaufmann, O., Laenen, B., Meyvis, B., Piessens, K., Gousis, S., Dupont, N., Harcouet-Menou, V. & Pogacnik, J., this conference. Decision support under uncertainty for geothermal applications: case selection and concept development.