Search publications of the members of the Royal Belgian institute of natural Sciences
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Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium
- Deep geothermal energy (DGE) is a renewable energy source that is considered to cause a low global warming impact. The potential of DGE for heating is widespread and interest in deep geothermal heating (DGH) has been growing in Europe to help achieving the decarbonization of the heating mix. Nevertheless, despite its large potential, DGH development in Europe remains underexplored. DGH investments are hindered by the risks born by geological and market uncertainties. However, various flexibility options inherent to the development process, such as the option to abandon or defer, could partly mitigate these risks. To account for managerial flexibility in the investment analysis, this study suggests a novel real options (RO) framework. The RO model splits DGH development into five phases, and considers several compound options and geological and market uncertainties to investigate the timing and value of DGH development at the Campine Basin in Northern Belgium. The RO model is coupled to a geo-techno-economic model and is solved using the Least Squares Monte Carlo algorithm. The RO analysis finds a 51% probability of abandonment and an average deferral time for the development of 12 years. The abandon option mitigates the risk of large financial losses in case of inadequate geological conditions. The defer option allows the investors to wait for more favorable market conditions before investing, to increase the project value. The results show that DGH development in the investigated area is not economically desirable. However, the investors’ flexibility increases the project value by 12.16 million EUR, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. The implementation of supporting policy measures improves the economic performance of the plant. The consideration of flexibility leads to supporting policy measures with 3–4 times lower governmental expenditure, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. This study shows that a RO approach is more suitable to investigate DGH investments than static techno-economic methods. The inclusion of flexibility allows for identifying development pathways that increase the project value and for designing more cost-efficient supporting policy schemes.
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Integrated assessment of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium through techno-economic, life cycle, global sensitivity and real options analysis
- The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
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Implementing geological and economic uncertainty in a techno-economic analysis of deep geothermal energy projects
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Geo-techno-economic assessment of CO2 capture, transport, and storage chain options for a cement plant in Germany
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The subsurface hydrogen storage potential in Belgium
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Building a regional telescoped model of the Campine Basin for subsurface management
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PSS V, a modular techno-economic simulation tool for deep subsurface uses
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The Epigravettian site of Yudinovo, Russia: mammoth bone structures as ritualized middens.
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Relationships of Late Pleistocene giant deer as revealed by Sinomegaceros mitogenomes from East Asia
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Geometric morphometric assessment of the fossil bears of Namur, Belgium: Allometry and ecomorphology
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The sponges Hymeniacidon perlevis and Halichondria panicea are reservoirs of antibiotic-producing bacteria against multi-drug resistant Staphylococcus aureus
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Sexual dimorphism in the walrus mandible: comparative description and geometric morphometrics
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Site-Specific Nutrient Data Reveal the Importance of Soils in Driving the Mycorrhizal Make-Up of Woody Vegetation Worldwide
- ABSTRACT Aim Arbuscular mycorrhizas (AM) and ectomycorrhizas (ECM) have different impacts on nutrient cycling, carbon storage, community dynamics and enhancement of photosynthesis by rising CO2. Recent global analyses have concluded that patterns of AM/ECM dominance in forests worldwide are shaped by climate, with soil nutrients contributing negligible additional explanatory power. However, their reliance on nutrient data from GIS surfaces masks important local influences of parent material, topography and soil age on soil nutrient status. We asked if use of site-specific nutrient data reveals a more important role for nutrients. Time Period Present day. Location Global dataset comprising 703 sites, encompassing forests, savanna/woodlands, shrublands and deserts on all continents except Antarctica. Taxa Studied Arborescent plants, including angiosperms, gymnosperms and tree ferns. Methods Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the effects of climate variables, soil nitrogen and soil phosphorus on the proportional representation of ECM and of non-mycorrhizal species (NM) in woody vegetation. Results GAMLSS showed a strong negative relationship of ECM representation with mean annual temperature (MAT), and a strong negative relationship with soil total nitrogen. NM representation was highest on dry sites and phosphorus-poor sites. Reanalysis showed that GIS-derived soil nutrient data had less explanatory power than site-specific nutrient data, and resulted in poorer model fits. Conclusions Our results support the long-held belief that soil nutrients as well as climate influence the relative fitness of different mycorrhizal syndromes worldwide, and demonstrate the value of using site-specific nutrient data. Soil nutrients should be considered when predicting the impact of climate change on the mycorrhizal composition of vegetation and resulting shifts in ecosystem processes.
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Feasibility of eradication and spread limitation for species of Union concern sensu the EU IAS Regulation (EU 1143/2014) in Belgium. Volume 2. Species of the 2nd and 3rd update of the Union list
- This report is the second assessment of management feasibility of Union list species in Belgium, focusing on species of the 2nd and 3rd update. It supports the implementation of the EU Regulation in Belgium, notably for the identification of cost-effective management goals and techniques as required by Article 17 and 19 on IAS eradication and management, respectively. It also provides an evidence base for Belgian management decisions through a transparent, standardized and repeatable process.
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Challenges of delivering scientific advice for evidence-based policies on invasive alien species in Belgium
- The implementation of the EU Regulation n°1143/2014 on IAS requires sound scientific input to design adequate actions of prevention, early warning and rapid response and management. The role of scientists is important to advise authorities on the way they should prioritize their efforts and to provide necessary evidence, e.g. when choosing management methods. An efficient collaboration between environmental agencies and scientific experts is therefore needed. In Belgium, the National Scientific Secretariat on Invasive Alien Species has been created to act as a science-policy interface, compile the required data and perform appropriate analysis to feed into the policy making process. Using three case studies as an example, we will present the opportunities and challenges of providing evidence based scientific advice to environmental authorities. The first case study deals with the identification of priority pathways of unintentional spread and introduction of IAS for which preventative measures should be devised. Based on an assessment of the number of species that are being transported along the pathways, and the impact of those species, we advised authorities on the pathways that should be tackled by actions plans. The second example deals with support to the border control agencies in the enforcement of Article 15 on border controls. To this end, we advised which plant and animal consignments should be prioritised for identity checks. This analysis serves as the basis for a first coordinated national campaign of inspections at borders and in shops. Finally, the third example is the production of an assessment of the feasibility of management of Union list species, to inform future management strategies of the environmental agencies. These assessments highlight the need of increased data quality and quantity (on interceptions, imports or management of species). It also stresses the challenge of adapting the analyses to the reality and priorities of environmental authorities.
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Evaluation of the risks of recreational angling on invasive alien species spread: results of a survey in Belgium
- Aquatic ecosystems are one of the most impacted ecosystems by biological invasions. They seem to be more susceptible to invasions and subsequent environmental alterations than their terrestrial counterparts. Moreover, eradication of invasive species in these systems proves to be very challenging. It is therefore crucial to prevent new introductions and secondary spread of species already present through a collective effort of all water users. The adoption of biosecurity measures is an efficient way of decreasing unintentional transportation of IAS plant fragments or larvae on equipment due to recreational or professional freshwater activities. To inform the development of the first biosecurity campaign for Belgian anglers, a national online survey for anglers was organized during the spring of 2023, and generated more than 3000 individual replies. The aim of this survey was manyfold: gain a better understanding of angler mobility and angling frequency, assess current routines of equipment maintenance and bait disposal and also assess anglers’ awareness and perception on the issue of biological invasions. Results indicated that there is a real risk that anglers can introduce IAS in uninvaded systems either by unintentionally moving organisms around by changing locations during one trip (25% of anglers) or by bringing them back from abroad (45% of anglers). This is especially true since only 7% of anglers adhere to the full check-clean-dry routine after each trip, and mobile anglers were not more proficient at cleaning their equipment. Additionally, some anglers sometimes release bait or undesired species to another location. Respondents’ perception on IAS was rather negative, with anglers citing them amongst the three main threats for angling – indicating they could be considered as allies in the fight against IAS. The results of the survey inform our future work with the angling community in Belgium to design adequate messages, efficiently reach the target audience and assess after if the campaign had an influence on angler habits and awareness.
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On a new species of Thia Leach, 1815 from the tropical eastern Atlantic (Decapoda, Brachyura, Portunoidea, Carcinidae, Thiinae)
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Okavango virus, a new Namibian mammarenavirus in a Southern African mammarenavirus clade
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Identification of Coronaviruses in bats in Flanders, Northern Belgium
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Antibodies against arboviruses in Mastomys natalensis from Tanzania
