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Climate change and biodiversity patterns in the mid-Palaeozoic
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RBINS Staff Publications 2017
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Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium
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Deep geothermal energy (DGE) is a renewable energy source that is considered to cause a low global warming impact. The potential of DGE for heating is widespread and interest in deep geothermal heating (DGH) has been growing in Europe to help achieving the decarbonization of the heating mix. Nevertheless, despite its large potential, DGH development in Europe remains underexplored. DGH investments are hindered by the risks born by geological and market uncertainties. However, various flexibility options inherent to the development process, such as the option to abandon or defer, could partly mitigate these risks. To account for managerial flexibility in the investment analysis, this study suggests a novel real options (RO) framework. The RO model splits DGH development into five phases, and considers several compound options and geological and market uncertainties to investigate the timing and value of DGH development at the Campine Basin in Northern Belgium. The RO model is coupled to a geo-techno-economic model and is solved using the Least Squares Monte Carlo algorithm. The RO analysis finds a 51% probability of abandonment and an average deferral time for the development of 12 years. The abandon option mitigates the risk of large financial losses in case of inadequate geological conditions. The defer option allows the investors to wait for more favorable market conditions before investing, to increase the project value. The results show that DGH development in the investigated area is not economically desirable. However, the investors’ flexibility increases the project value by 12.16 million EUR, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. The implementation of supporting policy measures improves the economic performance of the plant. The consideration of flexibility leads to supporting policy measures with 3–4 times lower governmental expenditure, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. This study shows that a RO approach is more suitable to investigate DGH investments than static techno-economic methods. The inclusion of flexibility allows for identifying development pathways that increase the project value and for designing more cost-efficient supporting policy schemes.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Integrated assessment of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium through techno-economic, life cycle, global sensitivity and real options analysis
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The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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The sponges Hymeniacidon perlevis and Halichondria panicea are reservoirs of antibiotic-producing bacteria against multi-drug resistant Staphylococcus aureus
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RBINS Staff Publications 2021
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Site-Specific Nutrient Data Reveal the Importance of Soils in Driving the Mycorrhizal Make-Up of Woody Vegetation Worldwide
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ABSTRACT Aim Arbuscular mycorrhizas (AM) and ectomycorrhizas (ECM) have different impacts on nutrient cycling, carbon storage, community dynamics and enhancement of photosynthesis by rising CO2. Recent global analyses have concluded that patterns of AM/ECM dominance in forests worldwide are shaped by climate, with soil nutrients contributing negligible additional explanatory power. However, their reliance on nutrient data from GIS surfaces masks important local influences of parent material, topography and soil age on soil nutrient status. We asked if use of site-specific nutrient data reveals a more important role for nutrients. Time Period Present day. Location Global dataset comprising 703 sites, encompassing forests, savanna/woodlands, shrublands and deserts on all continents except Antarctica. Taxa Studied Arborescent plants, including angiosperms, gymnosperms and tree ferns. Methods Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the effects of climate variables, soil nitrogen and soil phosphorus on the proportional representation of ECM and of non-mycorrhizal species (NM) in woody vegetation. Results GAMLSS showed a strong negative relationship of ECM representation with mean annual temperature (MAT), and a strong negative relationship with soil total nitrogen. NM representation was highest on dry sites and phosphorus-poor sites. Reanalysis showed that GIS-derived soil nutrient data had less explanatory power than site-specific nutrient data, and resulted in poorer model fits. Conclusions Our results support the long-held belief that soil nutrients as well as climate influence the relative fitness of different mycorrhizal syndromes worldwide, and demonstrate the value of using site-specific nutrient data. Soil nutrients should be considered when predicting the impact of climate change on the mycorrhizal composition of vegetation and resulting shifts in ecosystem processes.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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On a new species of Thia Leach, 1815 from the tropical eastern Atlantic (Decapoda, Brachyura, Portunoidea, Carcinidae, Thiinae)
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Phyllotreta astrachanica Lopatin, 1977, Phyllotreta rugifrons Kuester, 1849 et Longitarsus kutscherai (Rye, 1872) identifiés pour la première fois en Belgique (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Alticinae). Entretiens sur les Chrysomelidae de Belgique etc.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2021
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Colimarena, a new replacement name for the genus Colima Jocqué & Baert, 2005 (Araneae: Zodariidae)
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RBINS Staff Publications 2021
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Revisional notes on Trictenotoma Gray, 1832 (Coleoptera: Trictenotomidae) in Indochina bioregion, with description of a new species
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RBINS Staff Publications 2020
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Record of Basilissopsis for the bathyal region of the South Atlantic (Brazil) based on the description of a new species and the designation of a lectotype for B. rhyssa
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RBINS collections by external author(s)
