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Article Reference Integrated assessment of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium through techno-economic, life cycle, global sensitivity and real options analysis
The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium
Deep geothermal energy (DGE) is a renewable energy source that is considered to cause a low global warming impact. The potential of DGE for heating is widespread and interest in deep geothermal heating (DGH) has been growing in Europe to help achieving the decarbonization of the heating mix. Nevertheless, despite its large potential, DGH development in Europe remains underexplored. DGH investments are hindered by the risks born by geological and market uncertainties. However, various flexibility options inherent to the development process, such as the option to abandon or defer, could partly mitigate these risks. To account for managerial flexibility in the investment analysis, this study suggests a novel real options (RO) framework. The RO model splits DGH development into five phases, and considers several compound options and geological and market uncertainties to investigate the timing and value of DGH development at the Campine Basin in Northern Belgium. The RO model is coupled to a geo-techno-economic model and is solved using the Least Squares Monte Carlo algorithm. The RO analysis finds a 51% probability of abandonment and an average deferral time for the development of 12 years. The abandon option mitigates the risk of large financial losses in case of inadequate geological conditions. The defer option allows the investors to wait for more favorable market conditions before investing, to increase the project value. The results show that DGH development in the investigated area is not economically desirable. However, the investors’ flexibility increases the project value by 12.16 million EUR, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. The implementation of supporting policy measures improves the economic performance of the plant. The consideration of flexibility leads to supporting policy measures with 3–4 times lower governmental expenditure, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. This study shows that a RO approach is more suitable to investigate DGH investments than static techno-economic methods. The inclusion of flexibility allows for identifying development pathways that increase the project value and for designing more cost-efficient supporting policy schemes.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference Environmental and climatic inferences for Marine Isotope Stage 2 of southern Belgium (Meuse valley, Namur Province) based on rodent assemblages
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference Assembling ancestors: the manipulation of Neolithic and Gallo-Roman skeletal remains at Pommerœul, Belgium
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference Towards an integrative revision of Haplotaxidae (Annelida: Clitellata)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference A Tale of Three Oceans — Taxonomy of the Holothuria (Thymiosycia) arenicola Semper, 1868 complex (Echinodermata: Holoturoidea: Holothuriidae)
The ubiquitous sea cucumber Holothuria (Thymiosycia) arenicola Semper, 1868, externally characterized by a double row of dark blotches of various sizes on its dorsal body wall and a cryptic behaviour, is generally assumed to have a wide tropical distribution, although it has not been reported from the Eastern tlantic. Careful morphological examination, with emphasis on the ossicle assemblage, of type and non-type H. arenicola specimens sampled in the Indian, Pacific and tlantic Ocean, its subjective synonyms and species with a similar colouration and habit, revealed that H. arenicola is often confused with other species. This paper formally separates the different species in the H. arenicola complex, one of them being a species new to science: Holothuria (Thymiosycia) kerriensis sp. nov. dditionally, we describe two other species that are often confused with H. arenicola: Holothuria (Lessonothuria) gracilis Semper, 1868 and H. (Thymiosycia) strigosa Selenka, 1867. The H. arenicola complex per se is keyed-out, with the ossicle assemblage of the musculature being recognised as an important, previously largely neglected, guide. This contribution highlights the importance of building and curating well-maintaned natural history collections to understand biodiversity through time and space.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference The Population History of Domestic Sheep Revealed by Paleogenomes
Sheep was one of the first domesticated animals in Neolithic West Eurasia. The zooarchaeological record suggests that domestication first took place in Southwest Asia, although much remains unresolved about the precise location(s) and timing(s) of earliest domestication, or the post-domestication history of sheep. Here, we present 24 new partial sheep paleogenomes, including a 13,000-year-old Epipaleolithic Central Anatolian wild sheep, as well as 14 domestic sheep from Neolithic Anatolia, two from Neolithic Iran, two from Neolithic Iberia, three from Neolithic France, and one each from Late Neolithic/Bronze Age Baltic and South Russia, in addition to five present-day Central Anatolian Mouflons and two present-day Cyprian Mouflons. We find that Neolithic European, as well as domestic sheep breeds, are genetically closer to the Anatolian Epipaleolithic sheep and the present-day Anatolian and Cyprian Mouflon than to the Iranian Mouflon. This supports a Central Anatolian source for domestication, presenting strong evidence for a domestication event in SW Asia outside the Fertile Crescent, although we cannot rule out multiple domestication events also within the Neolithic Fertile Crescent. We further find evidence for multiple admixture and replacement events, including one that parallels the Pontic Steppe-related ancestry expansion in Europe, as well as a post-Bronze Age event that appears to have further spread Asia-related alleles across global sheep breeds. Our findings mark the dynamism of past domestic sheep populations in their potential for dispersal and admixture, sometimes being paralleled by their shepherds and in other cases not.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2023
Article Reference Contribution of omnidirectional flight traps to assess the ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) diversity in an agroforestry system.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2023
Article Reference Unveiling the above-ground eukaryotic diversity supported by individual large old trees : the “Life on Trees” integrative protocol
Large tropical trees are rightly perceived as supporting a plethora of organisms. However, baseline data about the variety of taxa coexisting on single large tropical trees are lacking and prevent a full understanding of both the magnitude of biodiversity and the complexity of interactions among organisms in tropical rainforests. The two main aims of the research program “Life on Trees” (LOT) are (1) to establish baseline knowledge on the number of eukaryote species supported/hosted by the above-ground part of a single tropical tree and (2) to understand how these communities of organisms are assembled and distributed on or inside the tree. To achieve the first goal, we integrated a set of 36 methods for comprehensively sampling eukaryotes (plants, fungi, animals, protists) present on a tropical tree. The resulting LOT protocol was conceived and implemented during projects in the Andean Amazon region and is proposed here as a guideline for future projects of a similar nature. To address the second objective, we evaluated the microclimatic differences between tree zones and tested state-of-the-art terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and positioning technologies incorporating satellite and fixed base station signals (dGNSS). A marked variation in temperature and relative humidity was detected along a 6-zones Johansson scheme, a tree structure subdivision system commonly used to study the stratification of epiphytic plants. Samples were collected from these six zones, including three along the trunk and three in the canopy. To better understand how different tree components (e.g., bark, leaves, fruits, flowers, dead wood) contribute to overall tree biodiversity, we categorized observations into communities based on Johansson zones and microhabitats. TLS was an essential aid in understanding the complex tree architecture. By contrast, the accuracy of positioning samples in the tree with dGNSS was low. Comprehensively sampling the biota of individual trees offers an alternative to assessing the biodiversity of fewer groups of organisms at the forest scale. Large old tropical trees provide a wealth of microhabitats that encompass a wide range of ecological conditions, thereby capturing a broad spectrum of biodiversity.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2023
Article Reference Stick insects from Vietnam: The new genus Mycovartes gen. nov., with two new species and two new species of Neooxyartes Ho, 2018 (Phasmida: Lonchodidae: Necrosciinae)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2023