Mytilopsis leucophaeata is a biofouling bivalve causing major problems in the cooling water system of BASF, Antwerp NV, Belgium, a large water-using industrial facility. This study aimed to develop a statistical model to predict the response of M. leucophaeata larvae to environmental conditions in estuarine ecosystems. Multiple logistic regression, taking into account temporal autocorrelation, was applied on a large dataset allowing the prediction of the probability of occurrence of M. leucophaeata larvae at BASF NV as a response to the environmental variables. The final model made it possible to predict larval presence in the water column solely by monitoring water temperature. The results from subsampling indicated that the model was stable. The model was tested with 2005 data, demonstrating a 98\% precise prediction of the occurrence of M. leucophaeata larvae in the water column, with a sensitivity of 100\% and a specificity of 97\%, even though autumn 2005 was exceptionally warm, which led to an extended presence of the larvae.
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The fauna is described from a refuse layer, excavated at Fort Frederik Hendrik on the island of Mauritius and dating to the last quarter of the 17th century AD. The animal remains enable the reconstruction of the food procurement strategies of the Dutch inhabitants of the fort and document the fauna at a time when the island’s original fauna had apparently already suffered heavily from human interference and from the negative impact of introduced species. The animal remains do not include any bones from the dodo, or other endemic birds, and neither is there evidence for the exploitation of the large, endemic terrestrial tortoises, also now extinct. Dugong, which are locally extinct nowadays, and marine turtles were also exploited as food, but the major meat providers were the introduced mammals: cattle, pigs, and especially, goat and Java deer. Fish was also a regular food resource and must have been caught in the local lagoon and estuaries. The absence of parrotfish and the relatively small size of the groupers suggest avoidance of these food items, probably out of fear of fish poisoning.
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