The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
The Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the base of the Selandian Stage is defined in the Zumaia section (Spain) at an abrupt change in lithology (base of Itzurun Formation), which coincides with the onset of a negative carbonate carbon isotope shift. However, this lithological change is not always very well expressed in other sections. In order to document the stratigraphic position of the Danian/Selandian boundary (DSB) on a more global scale, we have investigated three sections across the DSB, the Zumaia reference section (GSSP), the Loubieng section (auxiliary DSB reference section, France) and the Sidi Nasseur section (Tunisia). The Danian/Selandian boundary interval is subdivided and correlated throughout low latitudes, from the Altlantic Bay of Biscay to the Southern Tethys, on the basis of seven calcareous nannofossil and planktonic foraminiferal events (E-events). The base of the Selandian is proved to coincide with the end of the Braarudosphaera acme, which correlates with the lowest consistent occurrence (LCsO) of Lithoptychius aff. bitectus (=Fasciculithus janii sensu Steurbaut and Sztrákos, 2008) (event E4), but which is slightly posterior to the second radiation of the fasciculiths, up to now considered to represent the primary correlation tool of the DSB. A short-term δ13Corg negative excursion, associated with an increase in pCO2 is recorded at the very base of the Selandian. It is interpreted as a short period of global warming (hyperthermal), the duration of which is estimated at ~30 kyr. It is followed in all the three studied sections by a long-term decoupled carbon isotope event, marked by increasing δ13Corg and decreasing δ13Ccarb values. It may reflect a period of climatic cooling of a few 100 kyr, interpreted as a possible precursor of the global cooling event, marking the late Paleocene in the North Atlantic realm. The integration of the biostratigraphic and the isotope data indicates major differences in sedimentation rates during the early Selandian in the studied sections, but there is no evidence of substantial breaks in sedimentation in any of the sections during this interval. The lithological shift at the base of the Selandian points to an abrupt palaeoenvironmental reorganisation, although our integrated bio-chemostratigraphical investigation does not allow for estimating its duration nor the presence of a hiatus at that time.
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