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The link between anthropogenic nutrient loads and the magnitude and extent of diatom and Phaeocystis colony blooms in the Southern Bight of the North Sea was explored with the complex ecosystem model MIRO. The model was adapted for resolving the changing nutrient loads, the complex biology of the bloom species and the tight coupling between the benthic and pelagic compartments that characterise this shallow coastal shelf sea ecosystem. State variables included the main inorganic nutrients (nitrate [NO3], ammonium [NH4], phosphate [PO4] and dissolved silica [DSi]), 3 groups of phytoplankton with different trophic fates (diatoms, nanophytoflagellates and Phaeocystis colonies), 2 zooplankton groups (copepods and microzooplankton), bacteria, and 5 classes of detrital organic matter with different biodegradability. The capability of the MIRO model to properly simulate the observed SW–NE gradient in nutrient enrichment and the seasonal cycle of inorganic and organic C and nutrients, phytoplankton, bacteria and zooplankton in the eastern English Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea is demonstrated by running the model for the period from 1989 to 1999. The MIRO code was implemented in a simplified multi-box representation of the hydrodynamic regime. These model runs give the first general view of the seasonal dynamics of Phaeocystis colony blooms and nutrient cycling within the domain. C, N and P budget calculations show that (1) the coastal ecosystem has a low nutrient retention and elimination capacity, (2) trophic efficiency of the planktonic system is low, and (3) both are modulated by meteorological forcing.

Connectivity throughout the life cycle of flatfish remains an open question, especially during the early life stages. Their effective management requires understanding of how spawning grounds and nurseries are connected and what processes influence larval retention and dispersal. The case of sole (Solea solea L.) is of particular interest because it is one of the most valuable commercial species in the North Sea, although stocks are chronically overexploited and variability in interannual recruitment is high. The transport of sole larvae from the spawning grounds to the nurseries is driven by hydrodynamic processes, but the final dispersal pattern and larval survival/abundance might be influenced by both behavioral and environmental factors. Therefore it is important to understand the relative impact of hydrodynamics, environment, behavior and ecophysiology on sole larval dispersal. Here we use a particle-tracking transport model coupled to a 3D hydro-dynamic model of the North Sea to investigate interannual variability of the transport of sole larvae over a 12-year period (1995–2006). A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the relative impact of hydrodynamics, temperature and behavior on the recruitment dynamics to the nurseries. Four scenarios have been tested: (i) constant forcing of sea surface temperature during all years but varying meteorological forcing and river runoff, (ii) constant meteorological forcing during the whole period but varying sea surface temperature and river runoff, (iii) no vertical migration and (iv) an extended drift period (max. 30 days) before settlement if the larvae are not close to a suitable sediment type. Results suggest that year-to-year variability of larval supply to the nurseries is high, both in terms of abundance and larval source (balance between retention and dispersal). Sensitivity analysis shows that larval abundance at the end of the larval stage increases considerably if a settling delay is included. The impact of vertical migration on larval transport and the variations in larval retention at the nurseries due to varying meteorological conditions and sea surface temperature forcing are not spatially consistent.

A 3D hydrodynamical model has been set up to describe the distribution and variability of the salinity in Belgian coastal waters. Particular attention was paid to determining the relative impact of the Scheldt and Rhine/Meuse freshwater plumes and testing the hypothesis that the salinity of Belgian waters is primarily a mix between salty offshore water and freshwater from the Scheldt Estuary. Attention was also paid to determining whether the Seine has significant impact on the Belgian zone. The 3D hydrodynamical model, based on COHERENS, has been applied to the Channel and the Southern Bight of the North Sea using a 5′ (longitude) by 2.5′ (latitude) grid. The model has been run for the years 1991–2002. Real river runoffs have been taken into account for the main rivers within the domain: the Scheldt, the Rhine/Meuse, the Seine and the Thames. Model tracers were used to characterise the signature of water masses in terms of Atlantic and riverine waters. Results indicate that the salinity of Belgian waters is dominated by inflow of the Channel water mass which mixes with freshwater originating mainly from the Rhine/Meuse with a much smaller contribution from the Scheldt Estuary. This conclusion is further supported by simulation results obtained when each river discharge is separately set to zero. Thus, the ‘generally accepted’ hypothesis of a ‘continental coastal river’ with fresher coastal water flowing north-eastward up the French-Belgian-Dutch coast and picking up freshwater from successive outflows seems inappropriate for Belgian waters where horizontal dispersion of Rhine/Meuse water in the opposite direction is significant.

The coastal areas of the Southern North Sea (SNS) experience eutrophication problems resulting from freshwater nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs from rivers. In particular, massive blooms of Phaeocystis colonies occur in Belgian waters. In this region, water masses result from the mixing of Western Channel (WCH) waters transported through the Straits of Dover with nutrient-rich freshwater from the Scheldt, the Rhine and Meuse, the Seine, the Thames and other smaller rivers. However, the relative contribution of the WCH and each river to the inorganic nutrient pool and the impact on the phytoplankton community structure (diatoms and Phaeocystis) are not known. In order to effectively manage the eutrophication problems, it is necessary to know: (i) the relative contribution of the WCH and of each river impacting the region and (ii) the relative effect of a N and/or P nutrient reduction on the Phaeocystis blooms. To answer these questions, sensitivity tests (1% nutrient reduction) and nutrient reduction scenarios (50% nutrient reduction) have been performed with a three-dimensional (3D) coupled physical–biogeochemical model (MIRO&CO-3D). MIRO&CO-3D results from the coupling of the COHERENS 3D hydrodynamic model with the ecological model MIRO. The model has been set up for the region between 48.5°N, 4°W and 52.5°N, 4.5°E and run to simulate the annual cycle of carbon, inorganic and organic nutrients, phytoplankton (diatoms and Phaeocystis), bacteria and zooplankton (microzooplankton and copepods) in the SNS under realistic forcing (meteorology and river inputs) for the period 1991–2003. The relative contribution of the WCH waters and of the different rivers on the inorganic nutrient pool available for phytoplankton (diatoms and Phaeocystis) growth is assessed by decreasing by 1% the nutrient (dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN and inorganic phosphate, PO4) inputs from the WCH and from, respectively, the Scheldt (and smaller Belgian rivers), the Rhine/Meuse and the Seine (and smaller French rivers) [sensitivity tests]. The relative role of N and P reduction on the diatoms/Phaeocystis distribution is further explored by simulations with 50% reduction of the total (inorganic and organic) N and total P river inputs [nutrient reduction scenarios]. These scenarios allow assessing the impact of the expected 50% reduction of river nutrient inputs resulting from the implementation of nutrient reduction policy. Results of the sensitivity tests suggest that the impact of a 1% reduction of river nutrient inputs on surface nutrients (DIN and PO4) over the Belgian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) area is similar for the Seine and the Scheldt, which are in turn greater than for the Rhine. However, a hypothetical 1% reduction of nutrient input from the WCH boundary would have a higher impact than for the Scheldt. The impact of nutrient reduction is higher for DIN than for PO4 whatever the river (contrary to the WCH). DIN is more sensitive to riverine nutrient reduction because the rivers are over enriched in DIN compared to PO4. The sensitivity tests suggest also that a PO4 river input reduction would result in a N:P increase and a DIN river input reduction would result in a N:P decrease but that a combined (PO4 and DIN) input reduction would reduce the N:P ratio at sea. From 50% nutrient reduction scenarios, model results suggest that a total P reduction would induce a significant decrease of diatoms and a small (coast) to negligible (offshore) decrease of Phaeocystis biomass. On the contrary, a total N reduction would induce a significant decrease of Phaeocystis biomass and a moderate increase of diatoms. When N and P river input reductions are combined, the model predicts a significant decrease of Phaeocystis biomass in Belgian waters and a significant decrease of diatom biomass in the coastal waters and a small increase offshore. A future management plan aiming at Phaeocystis reduction should thus prioritise N reduction.

In the present work we used a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic model to study the combined effect of hydrodynamic variability and active vertical movements on the transport of sole larvae in the southern North Sea. Larval transport from the 6 main spawning grounds was simulated during 40 day periods starting on 2 plausible spawning dates, the 15/04 and the 01/05, during 2 years, 1995 and 1996. In addition to a “passive” behaviour, 3 types of active vertical movements inspired from previous studies have been tested: (1) Eggs and early larvae float in the surface waters, late larvae migrate toward the bottom and stay there until the end of the simulation; (2 and 3) Eggs float in the surface waters, early larvae perform diel vertical migrations in the surface waters, and (2) Late larvae perform diel vertical migrations in the bottom waters until the end of the simulation; or (3) Late larvae perform tidally synchronised vertical migrations in the bottom waters until the end of the simulation. These behaviours have been implemented in the model with vertical migration rates, positive or negative, which can account for buoyancy or real swimming activity. Variations in larval transport were analysed in terms of mean trajectories, final larvae distribution, larval retention above nurseries, and connectivity. Results suggest that the variations in larval retention above nurseries due to the varying hydrodynamic conditions are not consistent in space i.e. not the same for all the spawning sites. The effect of active vertical movements on larval transport is also not consistent in space: Effects of active vertical movements include decreased retention above nurseries, decreased transport and/or decreased horizontal dispersion of larvae through reduced vertical shear (depending on the zone). The variability in larval retention due to hydrodynamic variability is higher than variability due to differences in the behaviour of larvae. In terms of connectivity, exchanges of larvae between the 6 areas considered are moderate: 10 connections happened out of the 30 possible, and the amount of larvae exchanged is much lower than the amount of larvae retained except in a few cases. This is not incompatible with the possible existence of subpopulations of sole in the Eastern Channel and southern North Sea.

The MODIRISK project studied mosquito biodiversity and monitored and predicted biodiversity changes, to actively prepare to address issues of biodiversity change, especially invasive species and new pathogen risks. This work is essential given continuing global changes that may create suitable conditions for invasive species spread and the (re-)emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe. Key strengths of MODIRISK, in the context of sustainable development, were the links between biodiversity and health and the environment, and its contribution to the development of tools for describing the spatial distribution of mosquito biodiversity. MODIRISK addressed key topics of the global Diversitas initiative, which was a main driver of the Belspo ‘Science for a Sustainable Development’ research program. Three different MODIRISK datasets were published in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF): the Collection dataset (the Culicidae collection of the Museum of Natural History in Brussels); the Inventory dataset (data from the MODIRISK inventory effort); and the Longitudinal dataset (experiment data used for risk assessments.