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Article Reference Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium
Deep geothermal energy (DGE) is a renewable energy source that is considered to cause a low global warming impact. The potential of DGE for heating is widespread and interest in deep geothermal heating (DGH) has been growing in Europe to help achieving the decarbonization of the heating mix. Nevertheless, despite its large potential, DGH development in Europe remains underexplored. DGH investments are hindered by the risks born by geological and market uncertainties. However, various flexibility options inherent to the development process, such as the option to abandon or defer, could partly mitigate these risks. To account for managerial flexibility in the investment analysis, this study suggests a novel real options (RO) framework. The RO model splits DGH development into five phases, and considers several compound options and geological and market uncertainties to investigate the timing and value of DGH development at the Campine Basin in Northern Belgium. The RO model is coupled to a geo-techno-economic model and is solved using the Least Squares Monte Carlo algorithm. The RO analysis finds a 51% probability of abandonment and an average deferral time for the development of 12 years. The abandon option mitigates the risk of large financial losses in case of inadequate geological conditions. The defer option allows the investors to wait for more favorable market conditions before investing, to increase the project value. The results show that DGH development in the investigated area is not economically desirable. However, the investors’ flexibility increases the project value by 12.16 million EUR, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. The implementation of supporting policy measures improves the economic performance of the plant. The consideration of flexibility leads to supporting policy measures with 3–4 times lower governmental expenditure, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. This study shows that a RO approach is more suitable to investigate DGH investments than static techno-economic methods. The inclusion of flexibility allows for identifying development pathways that increase the project value and for designing more cost-efficient supporting policy schemes.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference Integrated assessment of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium through techno-economic, life cycle, global sensitivity and real options analysis
The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Article Reference The sponges Hymeniacidon perlevis and Halichondria panicea are reservoirs of antibiotic-producing bacteria against multi-drug resistant Staphylococcus aureus
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2021
Article Reference Phyllotreta astrachanica Lopatin, 1977, Phyllotreta rugifrons Kuester, 1849 et Longitarsus kutscherai (Rye, 1872) identifiés pour la première fois en Belgique (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Alticinae). Entretiens sur les Chrysomelidae de Belgique etc.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2021
Article Reference Colimarena, a new replacement name for the genus Colima Jocqué & Baert, 2005 (Araneae: Zodariidae)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2021
Article Reference Revisional notes on Trictenotoma Gray, 1832 (Coleoptera: Trictenotomidae) in Indochina bioregion, with description of a new species
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2020
Article Reference Record of Basilissopsis for the bathyal region of the South Atlantic (Brazil) based on the description of a new species and the designation of a lectotype for B. rhyssa
Located in Library / RBINS collections by external author(s)
Article Reference Brabantophyton, a new genus with stenokolealean affinities from a Middle to earliest Upper Devonian locality from Belgium
A new taxon with stenokolealean affinities, Brabantophyton runcariense gen. et sp. nov., is described from seven pyrite permineralized axes collected from the mid Givetian to earliest Frasnian (late Middle to earliest Upper Devonian) locality of Ronquières (Belgium). The specimens include stems and lateral organs. The stems are characterized by a protostele dissected into three primary ribs, each of them dividing into two secondary ribs. The protostele shows a central protoxylem strand and numerous strands distributed along the midplanes of the ribs. The vascular supply to lateral organ is composed of two pairs of traces, produced at the same time by the two ribs issued from a single primary rib of the protostele. Within each pair, the shape and the size of the traces are unequal: one is T-shaped and the other is oval to reniform. The T-shaped traces of each pair face each other. The inner cortex of the lateral organs is parenchymatous and the outer cortex is sparganum-like. The specimens of Brabantophyton runcariense show many similarities with the stenokolealean genus Crossia virginiana Beck and Stein, but the vascular supply of lateral organs of the latter consists of a more symmetrical and distinctively simpler pair of traces. Brabantophyton represents the first report of the Stenokoleales in southeastern Laurussia. The characteristics of the Brabantophyton protostele compare better with the anatomy of the radiatopses, and, within the latter, particularly with basal seed plants.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2016
Article Reference Sawflies from northern Ecuador and a checklist for the country (Hymenoptera: Argidae, Orussidae, Pergidae, Tenthredinidae, Xiphydriidae)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2018
Article Reference The Population History of Domestic Sheep Revealed by Paleogenomes
Sheep was one of the first domesticated animals in Neolithic West Eurasia. The zooarchaeological record suggests that domestication first took place in Southwest Asia, although much remains unresolved about the precise location(s) and timing(s) of earliest domestication, or the post-domestication history of sheep. Here, we present 24 new partial sheep paleogenomes, including a 13,000-year-old Epipaleolithic Central Anatolian wild sheep, as well as 14 domestic sheep from Neolithic Anatolia, two from Neolithic Iran, two from Neolithic Iberia, three from Neolithic France, and one each from Late Neolithic/Bronze Age Baltic and South Russia, in addition to five present-day Central Anatolian Mouflons and two present-day Cyprian Mouflons. We find that Neolithic European, as well as domestic sheep breeds, are genetically closer to the Anatolian Epipaleolithic sheep and the present-day Anatolian and Cyprian Mouflon than to the Iranian Mouflon. This supports a Central Anatolian source for domestication, presenting strong evidence for a domestication event in SW Asia outside the Fertile Crescent, although we cannot rule out multiple domestication events also within the Neolithic Fertile Crescent. We further find evidence for multiple admixture and replacement events, including one that parallels the Pontic Steppe-related ancestry expansion in Europe, as well as a post-Bronze Age event that appears to have further spread Asia-related alleles across global sheep breeds. Our findings mark the dynamism of past domestic sheep populations in their potential for dispersal and admixture, sometimes being paralleled by their shepherds and in other cases not.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2023