1.Migratory species depend on ephemeral environmental conditions; thus, species distribution modelling (SDM) must incorporate phenological changes along migratory routes. Our overarching goal was to model habitats for three waterfowl species migrating through Eurasian grasslands (red-breasted goose [Branta ruficollis], taiga bean goose [Anser fabalis fabalis] and Bewick's swan [Cygnus columbianus bewickii]) while accounting for ephemeral environmental conditions. Our objectives were (a) to develop a workflow of mapping ephemeral environmental conditions, (b) model habitats for the three species and (c) evaluate the protection status of habitats in natural and agricultural landscapes. We expected water availability, particularly ephemeral spring waterbodies, to strongly influence these species' distributions. 2. We utilized MODIS data for phenological synchronization of Landsat images to create species-and season-specific metrics and land cover maps. We used Landsat-derived environmental variables, elevation and bird GPS locations in Maxent SDM. We compared locations of modelled habitats, protected areas and Ramsar sites. 3. Our land cover maps had an overall accuracy of 0.92–0.95 and captured ephemeral water extent during these species' migrations. All models had AUC scores of 0.89–0.94; distance to water, land cover and elevation were the most important variables. Modelled habitats were distributed unevenly and occurred in both natural and agricultural landscapes; 40%–76% fell within croplands. Although most croplands provide a rich food supply, their value as waterfowl habitat critically depended on water availability. Approximately 22% of potential habitat in the natural landscape, but only 3% in croplands, had some level of protection.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2025
The grey wolf (Canis lupus) was the first species to give rise to a domestic population, and they remained widespread throughout the last Ice Age when many other large mammal species went extinct. Little is known, however, about the history and possible extinction of past wolf populations or when and where the wolf progenitors of the present-day dog lineage (Canis familiaris) lived1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Here we analysed 72 ancient wolf genomes spanning the last 100,000 years from Europe, Siberia and North America. We found that wolf populations were highly connected throughout the Late Pleistocene, with levels of differentiation an order of magnitude lower than they are today. This population connectivity allowed us to detect natural selection across the time series, including rapid fixation of mutations in the gene IFT88 40,000–30,000 years ago. We show that dogs are overall more closely related to ancient wolves from eastern Eurasia than to those from western Eurasia, suggesting a domestication process in the east. However, we also found that dogs in the Near East and Africa derive up to half of their ancestry from a distinct population related to modern southwest Eurasian wolves, reflecting either an independent domestication process or admixture from local wolves. None of the analysed ancient wolf genomes is a direct match for either of these dog ancestries, meaning that the exact progenitor populations remain to be located.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2022
