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Article Reference Integrated geo-techno-economic and real options analysis of the decision to invest in a medium enthalpy deep geothermal heating plant. A case study in Northern Belgium
Deep geothermal energy (DGE) is a renewable energy source that is considered to cause a low global warming impact. The potential of DGE for heating is widespread and interest in deep geothermal heating (DGH) has been growing in Europe to help achieving the decarbonization of the heating mix. Nevertheless, despite its large potential, DGH development in Europe remains underexplored. DGH investments are hindered by the risks born by geological and market uncertainties. However, various flexibility options inherent to the development process, such as the option to abandon or defer, could partly mitigate these risks. To account for managerial flexibility in the investment analysis, this study suggests a novel real options (RO) framework. The RO model splits DGH development into five phases, and considers several compound options and geological and market uncertainties to investigate the timing and value of DGH development at the Campine Basin in Northern Belgium. The RO model is coupled to a geo-techno-economic model and is solved using the Least Squares Monte Carlo algorithm. The RO analysis finds a 51% probability of abandonment and an average deferral time for the development of 12 years. The abandon option mitigates the risk of large financial losses in case of inadequate geological conditions. The defer option allows the investors to wait for more favorable market conditions before investing, to increase the project value. The results show that DGH development in the investigated area is not economically desirable. However, the investors’ flexibility increases the project value by 12.16 million EUR, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. The implementation of supporting policy measures improves the economic performance of the plant. The consideration of flexibility leads to supporting policy measures with 3–4 times lower governmental expenditure, compared to a conventional techno-economic analysis. This study shows that a RO approach is more suitable to investigate DGH investments than static techno-economic methods. The inclusion of flexibility allows for identifying development pathways that increase the project value and for designing more cost-efficient supporting policy schemes.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2024
Book Reference Integrated mine planning leading to sustainable post-mining transition. In: I.M3 2021 Conference: Legacies of mineral extraction and sustainability opportunities, Newcastle, 10-11 November 2021
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2022
Article Reference Integrated stratigraphic analysis of Lower Rupelian deposits (Oligocene) in the Belgian Basin.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Article Reference Integrative species delimitation and phylogeny of the branchiate worm Branchiodrilus (Clitellata, Naididae)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2018
Article Reference Integrative taxonomic re-description of Halisarca magellanica and description of a new species of Halisarca (Porifera, Demospongiae) from Chilean Patagonia
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2016
Inproceedings Reference Integrative taxonomy of the millipede family Pachybolidae in continental SE Asia
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2017
Article Reference Integrative taxonomy of the new millipede genus Coxobolellus, gen. nov. (Diplopoda : Spirobolida : Pseudospirobolellidae), with descriptions of ten new species
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2020
Article Reference Integrative taxonomy resuscitates two species in the Lasioglossum villosulum complex (Kirby, 1802) (Hymenoptera: Apoidea: Halictidae)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2018
Article Reference Inter and intra island introgression in a wolf spider radiation from the Galapagos and its implications for parallel evolution
Parallel radiations within island systems are often assumed to follow a simple scenario in which single colonization events are followed by in situ adaptive divergence. However, subsequent gene exchange after the initial colonization and during the divergence process might have important evolutionary impacts on species radiations. Gene exchange among ecologically similar species from different islands may lead to introgression of adaptive genetic variation and influence the parallel divergence process. In this study, we estimate levels of gene exchange within a wolf spider radiation of the genus Hogna Simon, 1885, from the Galápagos, wherein habitat specialization into ‘high elevation’ and ‘coastal dry’ species apparently evolved repeatedly on two islands. By using a multilocus approach we show that low levels of inter-island and relatively higher levels of intra island introgression shaped genetic variation in this species complex. Using these estimates, we demonstrate by means of a coalescence simulation that under these inter- and intra-island migration rates parallel evolution most likely evolves by introgression of adaptive alleles among islands, rather than through independent mutations despite the close genetic relationship of species within islands. As species phylogenies within radiations are frequently used to infer the divergence pattern, even relatively low levels of interspecific gene flow should not be neglected when interpreting parallel trait evolution.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Article Reference Inter- and intraspecific variation in the surface pattern of the dermal bones of two sturgeon species
Archaeological bone remains of sturgeon (Acipenser sturio/Acipenser oxyrinchus) from northwestern Europe are often identified to species on the basis of their surface morphology and then used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of the two species through time. The dermal bones of A. sturio are said to have an exterior surface pattern consisting of tubercles, while those of A. oxyrinchus are said to display alveoli. In the present paper, the validity of the surface pattern as a species-specific characteristic is critically assessed. To this purpose, dermal plates from modern, genetically identified museum specimens were studied and the surface morphology observed in a series of archaeological remains was compared with the genetic identifications obtained on these same remains. The analyses show that the surface pattern of dermal bones is related to the size of the individual, with the pattern of small A. oxyrinchus being similar to that of A. sturio. In addition, variations in the surface pattern among the bones of a single individual and within the same bone have been observed. These findings explain previous conflicting results between morphological and genetic identifications and allow the formulation of some recommendations for more accurate morphological identification of isolated archaeological sturgeon dermal bones.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications 2016