Search results

Remotely sensed data and a one-dimensional hydrophysical model were used to study the seasonal dynamics of surface plant pigments concentration in the Ligurian-Provençal basin. The variations of phytoplankton biomass were estimated from the observations of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (1978–1986) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) (September 1997 to October 1999) radiometers. The factors of physical environment analyzed included remotely sensed sea surface temperature (from advanced very high resolution radiometers), wind, air temperature, and atmospheric precipitation. The Geohydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER) model was used to explain the observed correlations between the physical forcing and the response of phytoplankton biomass. The general pattern of phytoplankton seasonal dynamics was typical to subtropical areas: maximum biomass during cold season from October to April and low biomass during summer months. The intensity of winter/spring bloom significantly varied during different years. The correlation was revealed between the summer/autumn air temperature contrast (expressed as the difference between the air temperatures in August and in November) and the maximum monthly averaged surface chlorophyll concentration during the subsequent winter/spring bloom. The features of seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton are regulated by the physical impacts influencing water stratification. The difference between two seasonal cycles (from September 1997 to October 1999) illustrates the response of phytoplankton growth to local meteorological conditions. In March–April 1999 the vernal bloom was much more pronounced; it resulted from deeper winter cooling and more intensive winter convection. Heating of surface water layer, wind mixing, and freshwater load with rains and river discharge either stimulate or depress the development of phytoplankton, depending on what limiting environmental factor (light or nutrient limitation) prevailed.

The constituent-oriented age theory (CAT) worked out by Delhez et al. (1999) is a flexible tool that can be applied to diagnose complex models. It is shown here how this can be used to quantify the pace at which an ecosystem model works. At the cost of the introduction of one additional evolution equation for each compartment of the ecosystem model, the mean age of the biological material forming these compartments can be computed. The information obtained in this way complements the information provided by the concentration data; while the latter measures the standing stocks, the former provides an integrated assessment of the interaction rates and matter fluxes. The benefits of the method are demonstrated with a simple Lotka–Volterra system and a one-dimensional vertical model of the nitrogen cycle in the Ligurian Sea. The theory can be used to study the biological compartments individually or the ecosystem as a whole. In particular, the age is a valuable tool to quantify the overall cycling rate of nitrogen in the food web.

The objective is to explore the potentialities of sequential statistical estimation methods to assimilate observations in a primary production biological model coupled to a vertical 1D hydrodynamical model characterised by a k–l turbulent closure. The assimilation method is derived from the SEEK filter (Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman filter), which uses an error subspace represented by multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Real data assimilation experiments collected at sea have been realised to reconstruct the variability of the Ligurian Sea ecosystem during the FRONTAL field experiment.

This paper presents results obtained with MIRO&CO-3D, a biogeochemical model dedicated to the study of eutrophication and applied to the Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea (48.5°N–52.5°N). The model results from coupling of the COHERENS-3D hydrodynamic model and the biogeochemical model MIRO, which was previously calibrated in a multi-box implementation. MIRO&CO-3D is run to simulate the annual cycle of inorganic and organic carbon and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and silica), phytoplankton (diatoms, nanoflagellates and Phaeocystis), bacteria and zooplankton (microzooplankton and copepods) with realistic forcing (meteorological conditions and river loads) for the period 1991–2003. Model validation is first shown by comparing time series of model concentrations of nutrients, chlorophyll a, diatom and Phaeocystis with in situ data from station 330 (51°26.00′N, 2°48.50′E) located in the centre of the Belgian coastal zone. This comparison shows the model's ability to represent the seasonal dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton in Belgian waters. However the model fails to simulate correctly the dissolved silica cycle, especially during the beginning of spring, due to the late onset (in the model) of the early spring diatom bloom. As a general trend the chlorophyll a spring maximum is underestimated in simulations. A comparison between the seasonal average of surface winter nutrients and spring chlorophyll a concentrations simulated with in situ data for different stations is used to assess the accuracy of the simulated spatial distribution. At a seasonal scale, the spatial distribution of surface winter nutrients is in general well reproduced by the model with nevertheless a small overestimation for a few stations close to the Rhine/Meuse mouth and a tendency to underestimation in the coastal zone from Belgium to France. PO4 was simulated best; silica was simulated with less success. Spring chlorophyll a concentration is in general underestimated by the model. The accuracy of the simulated phytoplankton spatial distribution is further evaluated by comparing simulated surface chlorophyll a with that derived from the satellite sensor MERIS for the year 2003. Reasonable agreement is found between simulated and satellite-derived regions of high chlorophyll a with nevertheless discrepancies close to the boundaries.

The link between anthropogenic nutrient loads and the magnitude and extent of diatom and Phaeocystis colony blooms in the Southern Bight of the North Sea was explored with the complex ecosystem model MIRO. The model was adapted for resolving the changing nutrient loads, the complex biology of the bloom species and the tight coupling between the benthic and pelagic compartments that characterise this shallow coastal shelf sea ecosystem. State variables included the main inorganic nutrients (nitrate [NO3], ammonium [NH4], phosphate [PO4] and dissolved silica [DSi]), 3 groups of phytoplankton with different trophic fates (diatoms, nanophytoflagellates and Phaeocystis colonies), 2 zooplankton groups (copepods and microzooplankton), bacteria, and 5 classes of detrital organic matter with different biodegradability. The capability of the MIRO model to properly simulate the observed SW–NE gradient in nutrient enrichment and the seasonal cycle of inorganic and organic C and nutrients, phytoplankton, bacteria and zooplankton in the eastern English Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea is demonstrated by running the model for the period from 1989 to 1999. The MIRO code was implemented in a simplified multi-box representation of the hydrodynamic regime. These model runs give the first general view of the seasonal dynamics of Phaeocystis colony blooms and nutrient cycling within the domain. C, N and P budget calculations show that (1) the coastal ecosystem has a low nutrient retention and elimination capacity, (2) trophic efficiency of the planktonic system is low, and (3) both are modulated by meteorological forcing.

Massive blooms of Phaeocystis colonies usually occur in the Belgian coastal zone (BCZ) between spring and summer diatom blooms but their relative magnitude varies between years. In order to understand this interannual variability, we used the biogeochemical MIRO model to explore the link between diatom and Phaeocystis blooms and changing nutrient loads and meteorological conditions over the last decade. For this application, MIRO was implemented in a simplified 3-box representation of the domain between the Baie de Seine and the BCZ. MIRO was run over the 1989–2003 period using actual photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), seawater temperature and riverine nutrient loads as forcing. The water mass residence time was calculated for each box based on a monthly water budget estimated from 1993–2003 water flow simulations of the three-dimensional hydrodynamical model COHSNS-3D. Overall MIRO simulations compare fairly well with nutrient and phytoplankton data collected in the central BCZ but indicate the importance of the hydrodynamical resolution frame for correctly describing the extremely high nutrient concentrations and biomass observed in the BCZ. Analysis of model results suggests that while interannual variability in diatom biomass depends on both meteorological conditions (light and temperature) and nutrient loads, Phaeocystis blooms are mainly controlled by nutrients. Further sensitivity tests with varying N and P loads suggest that only N reduction will result in significantly decreased Phaeocystis blooms without negative affects on diatoms, while P reduction will negatively affect diatoms. Moreover, Atlantic nutrient loads play such a great role in BCZ enrichment that reduction of Scheldt nutrient loads only is not sufficient to significantly decrease phytoplankton blooms in the BCZ. It is concluded that future nutrient reduction policies aimed to decrease Phaeocystis blooms in the BCZ without impacting diatoms should target the decrease of N loads in both the Seine and the Scheldt rivers.

The coastal areas of the Southern North Sea (SNS) experience eutrophication problems resulting from freshwater nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs from rivers. In particular, massive blooms of Phaeocystis colonies occur in Belgian waters. In this region, water masses result from the mixing of Western Channel (WCH) waters transported through the Straits of Dover with nutrient-rich freshwater from the Scheldt, the Rhine and Meuse, the Seine, the Thames and other smaller rivers. However, the relative contribution of the WCH and each river to the inorganic nutrient pool and the impact on the phytoplankton community structure (diatoms and Phaeocystis) are not known. In order to effectively manage the eutrophication problems, it is necessary to know: (i) the relative contribution of the WCH and of each river impacting the region and (ii) the relative effect of a N and/or P nutrient reduction on the Phaeocystis blooms. To answer these questions, sensitivity tests (1% nutrient reduction) and nutrient reduction scenarios (50% nutrient reduction) have been performed with a three-dimensional (3D) coupled physical–biogeochemical model (MIRO&CO-3D). MIRO&CO-3D results from the coupling of the COHERENS 3D hydrodynamic model with the ecological model MIRO. The model has been set up for the region between 48.5°N, 4°W and 52.5°N, 4.5°E and run to simulate the annual cycle of carbon, inorganic and organic nutrients, phytoplankton (diatoms and Phaeocystis), bacteria and zooplankton (microzooplankton and copepods) in the SNS under realistic forcing (meteorology and river inputs) for the period 1991–2003. The relative contribution of the WCH waters and of the different rivers on the inorganic nutrient pool available for phytoplankton (diatoms and Phaeocystis) growth is assessed by decreasing by 1% the nutrient (dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN and inorganic phosphate, PO4) inputs from the WCH and from, respectively, the Scheldt (and smaller Belgian rivers), the Rhine/Meuse and the Seine (and smaller French rivers) [sensitivity tests]. The relative role of N and P reduction on the diatoms/Phaeocystis distribution is further explored by simulations with 50% reduction of the total (inorganic and organic) N and total P river inputs [nutrient reduction scenarios]. These scenarios allow assessing the impact of the expected 50% reduction of river nutrient inputs resulting from the implementation of nutrient reduction policy. Results of the sensitivity tests suggest that the impact of a 1% reduction of river nutrient inputs on surface nutrients (DIN and PO4) over the Belgian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) area is similar for the Seine and the Scheldt, which are in turn greater than for the Rhine. However, a hypothetical 1% reduction of nutrient input from the WCH boundary would have a higher impact than for the Scheldt. The impact of nutrient reduction is higher for DIN than for PO4 whatever the river (contrary to the WCH). DIN is more sensitive to riverine nutrient reduction because the rivers are over enriched in DIN compared to PO4. The sensitivity tests suggest also that a PO4 river input reduction would result in a N:P increase and a DIN river input reduction would result in a N:P decrease but that a combined (PO4 and DIN) input reduction would reduce the N:P ratio at sea. From 50% nutrient reduction scenarios, model results suggest that a total P reduction would induce a significant decrease of diatoms and a small (coast) to negligible (offshore) decrease of Phaeocystis biomass. On the contrary, a total N reduction would induce a significant decrease of Phaeocystis biomass and a moderate increase of diatoms. When N and P river input reductions are combined, the model predicts a significant decrease of Phaeocystis biomass in Belgian waters and a significant decrease of diatom biomass in the coastal waters and a small increase offshore. A future management plan aiming at Phaeocystis reduction should thus prioritise N reduction.

In the present work we used a particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic model to study the combined effect of hydrodynamic variability and active vertical movements on the transport of sole larvae in the southern North Sea. Larval transport from the 6 main spawning grounds was simulated during 40 day periods starting on 2 plausible spawning dates, the 15/04 and the 01/05, during 2 years, 1995 and 1996. In addition to a “passive” behaviour, 3 types of active vertical movements inspired from previous studies have been tested: (1) Eggs and early larvae float in the surface waters, late larvae migrate toward the bottom and stay there until the end of the simulation; (2 and 3) Eggs float in the surface waters, early larvae perform diel vertical migrations in the surface waters, and (2) Late larvae perform diel vertical migrations in the bottom waters until the end of the simulation; or (3) Late larvae perform tidally synchronised vertical migrations in the bottom waters until the end of the simulation. These behaviours have been implemented in the model with vertical migration rates, positive or negative, which can account for buoyancy or real swimming activity. Variations in larval transport were analysed in terms of mean trajectories, final larvae distribution, larval retention above nurseries, and connectivity. Results suggest that the variations in larval retention above nurseries due to the varying hydrodynamic conditions are not consistent in space i.e. not the same for all the spawning sites. The effect of active vertical movements on larval transport is also not consistent in space: Effects of active vertical movements include decreased retention above nurseries, decreased transport and/or decreased horizontal dispersion of larvae through reduced vertical shear (depending on the zone). The variability in larval retention due to hydrodynamic variability is higher than variability due to differences in the behaviour of larvae. In terms of connectivity, exchanges of larvae between the 6 areas considered are moderate: 10 connections happened out of the 30 possible, and the amount of larvae exchanged is much lower than the amount of larvae retained except in a few cases. This is not incompatible with the possible existence of subpopulations of sole in the Eastern Channel and southern North Sea.

A technique for algal-bloom detection in European waters is described, based on standard chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) data from two ocean-colour sensors, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). Comparison of the two data sources shows good agreement in case 1 waters, whereas the difference is significant in coastal waters including turbid areas. A relationship between the water-leaving reflectance at 667 nm and Chl for case 1 waters was used to eliminate pixels where Chl retrieval is contaminated by backscatter from inorganic suspended matter. Daily Chl data are compared to a predefined threshold map to determine whether an algal bloom has occurred. In this study, a threshold map was defined as the 90th percentile of previous years' data to take account of regional differences in typical Chl levels, with separate maps for each sensor to take account of sensor-specific bias. The algal-bloom detection processing chain is described, and example results are presented.

In this paper the results from a workshop of the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) held in Lowestoft in 2007 are presented. The aim of the workshop was to compare the results of a number of North Sea ecosystem models under different reduction scenarios. In order to achieve comparability of model results the participants were requested to use a minimum spin-up time, common boundary conditions which were derived from a wider-domain model, and a set of common forcing data, with special emphasis on a complete coverage of river nutrient loads. Based on the OSPAR requirements river loads were derived, taking into account the reductions already achieved between 1985 and 2002 for each country. First, for the year 2002, for which the Comprehensive Procedure was applied, the different horizontal distributions of net primary production are compared. Furthermore, the differences in the net primary production between the hindcast run and the 50% nutrient reduction runs are displayed. In order to compare local results, the hindcast and reduction runs are presented for selected target areas and scored against the Comprehensive Procedure assessment levels for the parameters DIN, DIP and chlorophyll. Finally, the temporal development of the assessment parameter bottom oxygen concentration from several models is compared with data from the Dutch monitoring station Terschelling 135. The conclusion from the workshop was that models are useful to support the application of the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. The comparative exercise formulated specifically for the workshop required models to be evaluated for pre-defined target areas previously classified as problem areas according to the first application of the Comprehensive Procedure. The responsiveness of the modelled assessment parameters varied between different models but in general the parameter showed a larger response in coastal rather than in offshore waters, which in some cases lead to the goal to achieve a non-problem status. Therefore, the application of the Comprehensive Procedure on model results for parameter assessment opens a new potential in testing eutrophication reduction measures within the North Sea catchment. As a result of the workshop further work was proposed to confirm and bolster confidence in the results. One general field of difficulty appeared to be the model forcing with SPM data in order to achieve realistic levels of light attenuation. Finally, effects of the prescribed spin-up procedure are compared against a long-term run over many years and consequences on the resulting initial nutrient concentrations are highlighted.