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Progress in paleoearthquake and paleotsunami research along the Nankai Trough following the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake
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In the wake of the devastating 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office issued new guidance for assessing seismic hazards in Japan. Before 2011, seismic hazard assessment relied on source models developed from knowledge of a small number of well-documented historical earthquakes. Less well-known historical earthquakes, including the AD 869 Jōgan Sanriku earthquake, were largely disregarded as their seismic intensities or tsunami heights could not be reconciled with the chosen seismic sources. Following the unexpectedly large size of the Tōhoku earthquake, the Cabinet Office advocated renewed investigation of earthquake and tsunami occurrence over historical and longer timescales, with a particular focus on defining the largest possible magnitudes. The new guidelines pay close attention to the Nankai Trough, the subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate dives beneath the Eurasian Plate. The Nankai Trough faces the densely populated and highly industrialised coastline of south central Japan and harbours a widely-known seismic gap along its eastern Tōkai segment. A full-length rupture of the Nankai Trough, including the Tōkai segment, could produce an earthquake with a magnitude approaching that of the 2011 event, with tsunami travel times to the closest shorelines of less than 30 minutes. Here, we review geological evidence for past earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough. This evidence comes from a wide variety of sources, including uplifted marine terraces, turbidites, liquefaction features, subsided marshes and tsunami deposits in coastal lakes and lowlands. Examining papers published before and after 2011, we investigate the impact of the new Cabinet Office guidelines on attempts to understand the magnitude and recurrence of these events. We summarise current knowledge of the largest paleoearthquakes and paleotsunamis and make recommendations for further investigations of this highly critical subduction zone.
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Geological evidence for historical and older earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough, Japan
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In the wake of the devastating 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office issued new guidance for assessing seismic hazards in Japan. Before 2011, seismic hazard assessment relied on source models developed from knowledge of a small number of well-documented historical earthquakes. Less well-known historical earthquakes, including the AD 869 Jōgan Sanriku earthquake, were largely disregarded as their seismic intensities or tsunami heights could not be reconciled with the chosen seismic sources. Following the unexpectedly large size of the Tōhoku earthquake, the Cabinet Office advocated renewed investigation of earthquake and tsunami occurrence over historical and longer timescales, with a particular focus on defining the largest possible magnitudes. The new guidelines pay close attention to the Nankai Trough, the subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate dives beneath the Eurasian Plate. The Nankai Trough faces the densely populated and highly industrialised coastline of south central Japan and harbours a widely-known seismic gap along its eastern Tōkai segment. A full-length rupture of the Nankai Trough, including the Tōkai segment, could produce an earthquake with a magnitude approaching that of the 2011 event, with tsunami travel times to the closest shorelines of less than 30 minutes. We review geological evidence for historical and older earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough. This evidence comes from a wide variety of sources, including uplifted marine terraces, subsided marshes, liquefaction features, turbidites and tsunami deposits in coastal lakes and lowlands. Examining papers published before and after 2011, we investigate the impact of the new Cabinet Office guidelines on attempts to understand the magnitude and recurrence of these events. Additionally, we introduce the Belgian Science Policy Office funded QuakeRecNankai project, a collaboration aiming to supplement existing records by generating a long time series of earthquake and tsunami recurrence from sites at the eastern end of the Nankai Trough. The project uses a diverse range of geophysical, sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil approaches to investigate records of Holocene paleotsunamis in and around Lake Hamana and records of seismic shaking from the Fuji Five Lakes.
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The QuakeRecNankai project: reconstructing past earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai Trough, south central Japan
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The Nankai-Suruga subduction zone faces the densely populated and highly industrialised coastline of south central Japan. The largest possible class of earthquake on the subduction interface could exceed magnitude 9, with tsunami travel times to the closest shorelines of less than 30 minutes. In this presentation, we review geological evidence for past earthquakes and tsunamis in this region and introduce the QuakeRecNankai project, a Belgian, Japanese and German collaboration that aims to reconstruct past seismic shaking and tsunami occurrence from Lake Hamana and the Fuji Five Lakes at the eastern end of the Nankai Trough.
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The QuakeRecNankai project: Palaeoseismic data for improved seismic hazard assessment along the Nankai Trough, Japan
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On how to extract the paleotsunami history from a coastal lake record
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Coastal lake records can be successfully used for reconstructing continuous histories of tsunamigenic megathrust earthquakes. Here, we apply a wide range of methods on one Japanese and two Chilean coastal lakes and show that the selection of coring locations benefits significantly from accompanying geophysical survey data. High-resolution seismic profiles display several strong reflectors in all three lake basins, allowing us to map the depth and extent of coarse-grained tsunami deposits. Side scan sonar imagery enables us to reconstruct past tsunami inundation pathways.
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Exploring the potential of Lake Hamana (Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan) to hold a long and reliable sedimentary record of paleo-earthquakes and -tsunami along the Nankai-Suruga Trough.
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Coastal Lake Hamana is located near the convergent tectonic boundary of the Nankai-Suruga Trough, along which the Philippine Sea slab subducts underneath the Eurasian Plate, giving rise to repeated tsunamigenic megathrust earthquakes (Mw≥8). A good understanding of the earthquake- and tsunami-triggering mechanisms in terms of rupture mode and recurrence pattern in time and space, is crucial in order to better estimate the complexity of seismic risks for the densely populated Enshu-nada coast. Based on existing historical data of paleoseismicity (last ~1300 years), the easternmost segment (Tōkai segment) of the Nankai-Suruga Trough appears to exhibit a seismic gap and is expected to rupture in the near future, causing the next “Tōkai earthquake”. Studying the sedimentary infill of Lake Hamana may help to fine-tune hazard assessment in the area of interest. Thanks to its extensive accommodation space, the Hamana lake basin is considered to be a good archive of past “big wave” events. Fieldwork (Oct.-Nov. 2014) comprised a reflection-seismic survey for imaging the lake’s stratigraphic features, based on which favourable locations for gravity coring were selected. A systematic sampling of bottom sediments from different sites enables us to evaluate vertical as well as lateral changes in depositional environment, including event deposits generated by tsunamis and tropical storms (i.e. typhoons). An important part of the study is dedicated to qualitatively distinguish sedimentary facies of storm deposits from the ones generated by tsunamis, since this is an essential step in correctly assessing future hazards. For identification of marine tsunami incursions, a set of sedimentological, geophysical, geochemical and micropaleontological analyses are applied on the core sediments in a multi-proxy approach. Radionuclide dating provides the necessary timeframe and information on prevailing sedimentation rates. Sites bearing the potential of recording complete and long event histories will be sampled with long cores.
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Integrated taxonomic studies highlight the virus vector family Trichodoridae as a source of many unknown cryptic species
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RBINS Staff Publications
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The virus vector family Trichodoridae (Nematoda), a source of many unknown cryptic species
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RBINS Staff Publications
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Study of fossil feathers using infrared spectroscopy and imagery.
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RBINS Staff Publications
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Taphonomy of the Late Jurassic Kulinda Lake
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RBINS Staff Publications