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Integrated assessment of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium through techno-economic, life cycle, global sensitivity and real options analysis
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The decarbonization of the heating sector is crucial for the green transition of the energy mix. This study investigates threefold the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium First, techno-economic and life cycle assessment (LCA) are performed, followed by a global sensitivity analysis focusing on the geological uncertainty. Lastly, real options analysis (ROA) is employed to investigate the economic and environmental value of the investors’ flexibility. A novel ROA method is proposed that considers the LCA results to calculate development decisions that minimize the expected environmental impact of the investment. The results show that the economic and environmental performance of the investment vary with the energy prices and the electricity mix. The performance of the investment is driven by the plant’s pumping requirements, which are induced by the relatively low rock permeability at the targeted location. Also, the results’ variability mainly originates by uncertainty regarding the permeability value. Nevertheless, the investors’ flexibility adds large economic and environmental value to the investment. However, the development strategies that optimize the economic or the environmental performance of the plant present some trade-offs. This study demonstrates that the economic and environmental performance of deep geothermal heating investments in Northern Belgium can be improved by focusing on the factors that simultaneously drive the costs, environmental impacts, and their variability. It also shows that utilizing the investors’ flexibility to optimize the investment’s economic and environmental performance can add significant value to the investment.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Spatio-temporal feedstock availability and techno-economic constraints in the design and optimization of supply chains: The case of domestic woody biomass for biorefining
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A future bio-based economy envisions the transformation of the petrochemical industry into using biomass such as wood (waste) as a major resource. The early-stage evaluation of a biorefinery project requires the optimization of the lay-out of the supply chain considering the spatio-temporal variability of the availability of feedstock and the techno-economical characteristics of the biorefinery process. Therefore, the presented methodology was developed combining three models: (1) a forest management and planning tool providing a detailed prediction on the wood resource availability as well as the harvested feedstock quantity and cost with respect to location and time, (2) a techno-economic assessment model of the biorefinery process (e.g., species-specific conditions, capacity, CAPEX, OPEX), and (3) a strategic supply chain optimization model combining the insights of (1) and (2) into a spatio-temporal explicit supply chain analysis. The developed methodology has been evaluated through a case-study on the emerging reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) biorefining in the Flanders region (EU) and shows that the most economically interesting configuration is one large biorefinery with a yearly wood chip intake of 150 kton. The biorefinery location reflects the available feedstock distribution in Flanders and is suggested to be situated best in the most forested region. The proposed methodology proved to be dynamic and robust: (1) input data and technical calculations can easily be adapted or updated; (2) the methodology can be applied to a broad range of applications beyond the scope of the biorefinery, to different feedstock choices; (3) the impact of the biorefinery location on e.g. energy balance, CO2 emissions, and financial balance can be assessed.
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The environmental impacts of the lignin-first biorefineries: A consequential life cycle assessment approach
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The emerging reductive catalytic fractionation biorefinery which is currently under development aims to convert woody biomass efficiently into high-value products. Despite its potential, the environmental consequences of its implementation are not well known. Therefore, a forward-looking consequential life cycle assessment examines greenhouse gas emissions associated with its products (pulp, phenolic monomers, and oligomers) compared to alternative market options. Findings indicate that current greenhouse gas emissions exceed those of the existing alternatives, with by-products and the gaseous waste stream as major contributors. Process adaption to (i) produce higher-valued products (bleached pulps, phenols, and propylene) and (ii) incinerate gaseous waste stream for energy are proposed, potentially reducing emissions by up to 50 %, outperforming alternative options. Compared to land-based transportation, waterways can increase feedstock availability by up to 1000 km without an increase in emissions. In conclusion, the consequential approach provides valuable insights for enhancing and optimizing the environmental performance of the process.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Valuation of ecosystem services in marine protected areas: A comprehensive review of methods and needed developments
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Effectively managing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) requires recognising and understanding the fundamental services offered by marine ecosystems and the socio-economic consequences that their changes will have. A systematic literature review was performed to generate a first in-detail screening and assessment of monetary and non-monetary methods for the valuation of ecosystem services (ES) and their application in MPAs and MPA networks. A total of 100 peer-reviewed papers on ES valuation within MPAs and MPA networks were identified and analysed. Valuation methods can be classified into nine monetary and seven non-monetary methodologies. There is a predominant use of monetary valuation methodologies, especially stated preference methods. However, combining monetary with non-monetary valuation approaches can provide deeper insights into the underlying reasons for assigning values to ES and offer enhanced opportunities to capture the value of services that may be challenging to express solely in monetary terms. Besides, the review underscores the gaps in assessment methodologies, particularly in addressing supporting and regulating ES, as well as non-use and option values related to MPAs, underscoring the need for innovative approaches to overcome challenges in capturing these essential components of marine ecosystems.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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The dilemma of valuing geodiversity: geoconservation versus geotourism
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Processes controlling rare earth element distribution in sedimentary apatite: Insights from spectroscopy, in situ geochemistry and O and Sr isotope composition
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Investigating critical metals Ge and Ga in complex sulphide mineral assemblages using LIBS mapping.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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Multi-stage evolution of the monzonitic Larvik Plutonic Complex (Oslo Rift, Norway) and its implications for the formation of the Kodal Fe-Ti-P (− REE) deposit
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024
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The Critical Raw Materials Atlas of Belgium
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The palaeoecological conditions of the tidal channel network of the Zwin region (Flanders, Belgium)
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The northeastern coastal plain of Belgium was a well-developed region during the late medieval period when Bruges and a series of smaller harbours became connected to the North Sea via the Zwin tidal channel. Yet, ecological data related to the evolution of the regional environment of the former Zwin region are still lacking. Diatoms, pollen, and macrobotanical remains have been studied for the first time from two cores drilled in the surroundings of the lost harbour of Hoeke. The sediments in both cores were deposited in four successive tidal channel systems spanning the pre-Roman to late medieval periods. Marine tychoplanktonic and planktonic diatoms were dominant and confirmed the presence of open marine tidal channels, while marine epipsammic diatoms were specific to channel deposits (systems 1 and 4) and marine epipelic diatoms characterised channel and accretion deposits (systems 2 and 3). The sediments of the late medieval Zwin main channel and tributary (system 4) are both characterised by marine tychoplanktonic and epipsammic species. The palynomorphs were typical of marine tidal deposits and (reworked) peat, while macroremains pointed to freshwater plants growing in the vicinity. The palynomorphs (system 4) suggest a more open landscape associated with the extensive reclamation and embankment of the Zwin region. Diatoms in the superjacent tidal deposits indicate that the late medieval Zwin silted up rapidly. Keywords : Late Holocene, palynology, diatom analysis, tidal channel system, medieval harbour
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