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Article Reference Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products—a multi-model ensemble for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea
Multi-model ensembles for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface currents (SSC), and water transports have been developed for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea using outputs from several operational ocean forecasting models provided by different institutes. The individual models differ in model code, resolution, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and data assimilation. The ensembles are produced on a daily basis. Daily statistics are calculated for each parameter giving information about the spread of the forecasts with standard deviation, ensemble mean and median, and coefficient of variation. High forecast uncertainty, i.e., for SSS and SSC, was found in the Skagerrak, Kattegat (Transition Area between North Sea and Baltic Sea), and the Norwegian Channel. Based on the data collected, longer-term statistical analyses have been done, such as a comparison with satellite data for SST and evaluation of the deviation between forecasts in temporal and spatial scale. Regions of high forecast uncertainty for SSS and SSC have been detected in the Transition Area and the Norwegian Channel where a large spread between the models might evolve due to differences in simulating the frontal structures and their movements. A distinct seasonal pattern could be distinguished for SST with high uncertainty between the forecasts during summer. Forecasts with relatively high deviation from the multi-model ensemble (MME) products or the other individual forecasts were detected for each region and each parameter. The comparison with satellite data showed that the error of the MME products is lowest compared to those of the ensemble members.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Techreport Reference Degraer, S., Vigin, L., Brabant, R., (Eds), 2015. WinMon Activity Report 2013-2014. MARECO report 15/01. 45 pp.
Wind monitoring Activity report 2013-2014.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Techreport Reference Degraer, S., Vigin, L., Brabant, R., (Eds), 2015. WinMon Outreach 2005-2015. MARECO report 15/02. 35 pp.
Windmills monitoring: outreach 2005-2015
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Article Reference Wave Glider Monitoring of Sediment Transport and Dredge Plumes in a Shallow Marine Sandbank Environment
As human pressure on the marine environment increases, safeguarding healthy and productive seas increasingly necessitates integrated, time- and cost-effective environmental monitoring. Employment of a Wave Glider proved very useful for the study of sediment transport in a shallow sandbank area in the Belgian part of the North Sea. During 22 days, data on surface and water-column currents and turbidity were recorded along 39 loops around an aggregate-extraction site. Correlation with wave and tidal-amplitude data allowed the quantification of current- and wave-induced advection and resuspension, important background information to assess dredging impacts. Important anomalies in suspended particulate matter concentrations in the water column suggested dredging-induced overflow of sediments in the near field (i.e., dynamic plume), and settling of finer-grained material in the far field (i.e., passive plume). Capturing the latter is a successful outcome to this experiment, since the location of dispersion and settling of a passive plume is highly dependent on the ruling hydro-meteorological conditions and thus difficult to predict. Deposition of the observed sediment plumes may cause habitat changes in the long-term.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Inproceedings Reference Backscatter stability and influence of water column conditions: estimation by multibeam echosounder and repeated oceanographic measurements, Belgian part of the North Sea
The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires Member States to monitor and assess the health status of their marine habitats. Belgium put forward that the spatial extent and distribution of the major habitats (sandy mud to mud, muddy sands to sands and coarse-grained sediments), as well as that of gravel beds may only fluctuate within a margin that is limited to the accuracy of the current sediment distribution maps. Due to their ability to provide simultaneous bathymetry and backscatter strength (BS), reflecting seabed nature, multibeam echosounder systems (MBES) provide a time- and costefficient solution to anticipate on this legal obligation. However, as there is no formal quality level scale for the BS and consequently no level of reliability of the final decibel values, evaluating the BS quantitative capabilities to monitor habitat changes remains challenging. In a monitoring context, it is absolutely necessary to investigate to what extent the mean MBES-measured BS variation -from one cruise to another- actually represents a significant change in seabed properties and not only a change in the conditions of the water column (e.g., variation in near-bed suspensions, biological effects, increased occurrence of micro bubbles in the sea surface due to wind) at the time of the measurement. In order to evaluate the relative accuracy and the repeatability of MBES BS and to examine the external sources of variance in acoustic signatures, repeated measurements combining MBES with an Acoustic Doppler current Profiler (ADP) have been performed during tidal cycles on reference areas in the Belgian part of the North Sea. Currents and BS in the water column and vertical profiling of oceanographic parameters have been investigated allowing studying the influence of water column conditions on the BS. Measurements were conducted using two MBES systems to evaluate repeatability between echosounders. Ultimate goal is to arrive at seabed mapping and analyses protocols to obtain harmonized data products from a collaborative seabed mapping community.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Inproceedings Reference Influence of shells and shell debris on backscatter strength: investigation using modeling, sonar measurements and sampling on the Belgian Continental Shelf
Acoustic interaction theory and observation highlight the strong relation between the acoustic signal responses and the physical and biological processes acting on the seafloor and in the water column. Several descriptors such as sediment texture, porosity and surface roughness are identified as the main factors affecting the acoustic reverberation and backscatter signals. Shells can influence if not dominate the scattering on the seafloor(Jackson et al., 1986; Stanic et al., 1989 and Zhang, 1996). Scattering from both inclusions and partially buried shells on the sea-floor is described by Stanton (2000), and scattering from shells as a potential mechanism explaining the scattering above 200 kHz is highlighted by Ivakin (2009). In order to improve the knowledge on this matter, several institutions with different expertise are cooperating to integrate mathematical modeling and experimental results to better quantify the influence of shells and shell debris on the acoustic signal and scattering of sonar images. Mathematical 3D models of shell objects in a sediment matrix will be used to simulate the influence of the shells on acoustic signal and scattering. The physical arrangements of shells and their spatio-temporal population trends are also considered in the modeling. The models will be supported by direct sonar measurements of seafloor areas on the Belgian Continental Shelf, combined with sampling, visual observations, classification and shape analysis of the shells and shell debris.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Inproceedings Reference New insights on Uppermost Famennian brachiopods from north-western France (Avesnois)
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Article Reference New insights on Uppermost Famennian brachiopods from north-western France (Avesnois).
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Article Reference Middle and Upper Devonian Events in Belgium: review and new insights.
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications
Article Reference The Red Marble of Baelen, an exceptional mid-Famennian mud mound complex in a carbonate ramp setting from Eastern Belgium
Located in Library / RBINS Staff Publications