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Amplified warming and marine heatwaves in the North Sea under a warming climate and their impacts
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The northeast Atlantic and adjacent regions, such as the North Sea, are among the fastest-warming areas in the world. However, the role of climate change and internal variability in marine heatwaves (MHWs) in this region remains poorly understood. This study aims to quantify the relevant changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs in the North Sea, as well as to identify the leading patterns of interannual MHW variability over more than 4 decades (1982–2024). Our results indicated a new regime shift in the annual mean SST in the North Sea since 2013. Therefore, we examined the relationships between MHW trends and long-term sea surface warming trends to quantify the role of climate change in the intensification of MHWs. We found that the increase in MHWs is related to the significant decadal change in SST over the North Sea and we have revealed that large-scale climate modes, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the East Atlantic Pattern, play a crucial role in this decadal change in SST. In particular, the SST trend has doubled in the post-2013 period (0.8 °C per decade), compared with the pre-2013 period (0.4 °C per decade), leading to longer and more frequent MHWs. The SST, MHW frequency, and MHW days increased significantly by 0.38 °C per decade, 1.04 events per decade, and 17.27 d per decade, respectively, over the entire study period. After removing the long-term sea surface warming trend before MHW detection, all MHW features exhibited insignificant trends, indicating that the long-term SST trend is the primary driver of the observed long-term MHW trend in the North Sea region, thereby confirming the crucial role of mean SST changes in MHWs in this region. Furthermore, we found that 80 % of the observed trend in MHW frequency is attributed to long-term warming, while the rest is attributed to internal variability. The SST record in May 2024, manifest by the longest (27 d) and most intense (2.2 °C) MHW event, is attributed to an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Baltic Sea and southern Norway, which enhanced solar radiation over the North Sea. Finally, we also investigated how the chlorophyll a concentration responded to the MHW, revealing a decrease in the deep and cold-water regions of the northern North Sea and an increase in the shallow and warm-water areas of the southern North Sea.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2025
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The BiogeochemicAl Model for Hypoxic and Benthic Influenced areas: BAMHBI v1.0
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This paper describes the ocean BiogeochemicAl Model for Hypoxic and Benthic Influenced areas (BAMHBI). BAMHBI is a moderate complexity marine biogeochemical model that describes the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and oxygen through the marine foodweb. It involves 22 state variables, extends from bacteria up to mesozooplankton and includes three phytoplankton functional types (PFTs), two zooplankton size-classes, a microbial loop with several classes of detritic materials. Five optional modules are available allowing to extend the model with the explicit modelling of Chlorophyll a (Chl a) in each PFT, benthic degradation, gelatinous dynamics, particles aggregation and the carbonate system. BAMHBI describes the degradation of organic matter according to oxygenation conditions using an approach similar to that used in the sediment to simulate early diagenesis. The model is particularly appropriate for modelling low oxygen environments and the generation of sulfidic waters. An optional benthic module solves the degradation of sedimentary organic matter and the benthic-pelagic fluxes of solutes using an efficient formulation based on meta-modelling. This paper describes in details model formulations, implementation and coupling with the physics. BAMHBI's code is written in Fortran and can be coupled with many hydrodynamical models. Two case studies of application of BAMHBI in the Black Sea are described. One describes the application of BAMHBI to simulate the biogeochemical dynamics of the northwestern shelf during the eutrophication period. In particular, the ability of BAMHBI to simulate the oxygen dynamics at seasonal and interannual scales is assessed with a focus on the simulation of bottom hypoxia. We highlight the results of the benthic modelling module and its ability to represent benthic-pelagic fluxes. The second case study compares the BAMHBI simulated Chl a, oxygen and nitrate dynamics in the deep sea with respect to biogeochemical Argo.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2026
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Local and landscape effects on ant functional and taxonomic compositions across green spaces of a tropical metropolis
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Urbanization is one of the main processes driving environmental transformation, altering the structure and functioning of biological communities across multiple spatial scales. In this study, we evaluated the effects of local and landscape variables on the taxonomic and functional composition of ants in different types of urban green spaces in the city of Salvador, Brazil. A total of 62 sampling points were surveyed across forest fragments, squares, streets medians, and vacant lots, using specific methods for both ground-dwelling and arboreal strata. We recorded 93 ant species distributed among 20 functional groups. Our results indicated that, at the local scale, leaf litter depth was the primary explanatory factor for both taxonomic and functional richness, as well as for functional composition. At the landscape scale, human population density and vegetation cover surrounding the sampling points influenced the distribution of species and functional groups, revealing contrasting patterns between specialist and generalist species. While arboreal, hypogeic, and fungivorous ants were more dependent on structurally complex and conserved habitats, epigeic, omnivorous, and some predatory species were favored in more simplified and heterogeneous environments. These findings highlight that biodiversity conservation in urban areas depends on integrated strategies across multiple scales, encompassing management practices that ensure local structural complexity alongside planning that promotes habitat heterogeneity at the landscape level. Overall, the study demonstrates that the arrangement and quality of urban green spaces play a central role in maintaining both taxonomic and functional diversity of ant communities in tropical cities.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2026
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Diagnosing the Flocculation–Transport Dynamics of Suspended Particulate Matter Using a Two-Class Population Balance Model and Bayesian Calibration
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Abstract The dynamics of suspended particulate matter (SPM) plays a crucial role in determining water quality, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycles in inland, estuarine, and coastal water resources. Flocculation processes strongly influence the SPM dynamics via aggregation and breakage under various hydrodynamic and biogeochemical conditions. This study introduces a mechanistic and diagnostic framework that combines a two-class population balance equation (TCPBE) model with Bayesian calibration to simulate flocculation?transport behavior in both laboratory- (time-dependent batch) and field-scale (one-dimensional vertical) systems. Laboratory experiments with biopolymer?clay and microalgae?clay mixtures and field observations from an estuarine turbidity maximum zone are used to derive a comprehensive data set for model validation. Bayesian inference enables the estimation of uncertain model parameters while characterizing their statistical properties, thus supporting the mechanistic interpretation of flocculation dynamics. By quantifying how ionic strength and microbial physiology regulate flocculation kinetics and elucidating the turbulence-driven coupling between flocculation kinetics and sediment transport over tidal cycles, the framework demonstrates its suitability as a process-based diagnostic tool capable of effectively capturing SPM dynamics under various conditions. This framework has strong potential to advance the understanding of flocculation dynamics and support a range of applications in inland and estuarine sediment-laden water systems, including river, reservoir, esturine and coastal waters.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2026
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The importance of long-time series of benthic data for science and management
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Benthic organisms are important ecological receptors, playing fundamental roles across seafloor ecosystems, delivering some of the most important functions in the marine environment. Some of these key benthic functions include nutrient cycling, food provision for higher trophic levels, and carbon storage. Over the past 6 years, benthic monitoring has faced growing complexity, driven by diminishing funding and the constraints imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. These challenges underscore the pressing need to recognize the enduring value of benthic time series in supporting monitoring, management, and modelling efforts. These long-term data sets have been critical to advance our current understanding into the areas of cumulative effects, conservation, management of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), development of indicators, and assessment of climate-driven changes in marine ecosystems. Ongoing expert group discussions consistently affirm both the relevance and necessity of continuing to collect these vital data sets. However, the focus on emerging technologies and so-called ‘cutting-edge’ approaches sometimes leads to the undervaluation and compromising some of these long-term series. We contend that a comprehensive understanding of benthic ecology, essential for robust marine management, reliable numerical analysis, and taxonomic consistency, cannot be achieved without the continuity provided by long-term data. Such time series are indispensable for tracking patterns of change and assessing responses across diverse human activities and seafloor ecosystems. While our research has concentrated on soft sediment environments, many of the key principles and recommendations outlined here are broadly applicable to other ecosystem types.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2026
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At-sea distribution of seals on the Northwest European Shelf: Towards transboundary conservation and management
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Quantifying and mitigating transboundary effects of anthropogenic activity is a key challenge in environmental management, particularly for wide-ranging species such as large predators, fish and migratory birds, relying on habitats across multiple national jurisdictions. This challenge is especially complex in marine ecosystems, where the movement of species and impacts across borders is largely unobserved. Central-place foragers, such as pinnipeds and seabirds, exemplify this complexity: abundance is typically assessed on local (regional or national) scales on land, yet at-sea movements and drivers of abundance occur on broader transboundary scales. Resolving this mismatch is critical to effective conservation, especially in areas such as the Northwest European Shelf (NWES), which features globally important predator populations (including two pinniped species) alongside growing anthropogenic pressures and a mosaic of national maritime borders. We model an unprecedented GPS dataset from 236 grey (Halichoerus grypus) and 606 harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) tracked in waters of seven countries across the NWES (United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and Denmark). Using regional habitat association models, we generate at-sea distribution estimates for both species at 5 km resolution, scaled to haulout counts, producing country-specific and NWES-wide density maps. Analysis of the extent to which seals making foraging trips from one country occupy the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of other countries revealed substantial transboundary overlap, particularly for grey seals, and harbour seals in the southern North Sea. A case study apportioning grey seal density within three adjacent offshore marine protected areas in different EEZs revealed that, where total density in a given area is required, overlooking transboundary distribution can underrepresent numbers by an order of magnitude. Synthesis and applications. This study provides the first comprehensive, regionally scalable distribution estimates for pinnipeds across the NWES and its constituent countries. The modelling framework is adaptable to other central-place and migratory species, supporting transboundary biodiversity assessments and international conservation policy. We discuss common limitations and misconceptions of species distribution estimates, highlight priorities for future work and underscore the need for transboundary efforts to manage wide-ranging species, providing a foundation for future ecological modelling and decision-making across shared ecosystems.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2026
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An integrated study of dark earth from the alluvial valley of the Senne river (Brussels, Belgium).
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The present article discusses the integration of urban geoarchaeological and archaeobotanical data of a series of Dark Earth deposits situated in the alluvial valley of the Senne River in Brussels, Belgium. Due to their homogeneous character, their interpretation is a huge challenge for archaeologists. Through a caseby-case approach, a detailed picture of the sequence of different activities and (semi-) natural events, leading to the build up of Dark Earth at each individual site has been obtained. Among the activities, agricultural practices and waste management, which are rarely archaeologically recorded in urban contexts, have been identified. Despite being situated in a valley context, none of the sites presented an excellent preservation of the organic plant remains. However, through the integration of geoarchaeological and botanical data, the taphonomical history of the botanical remains could better be understood, allowing us to document the evolution of the environment surrounding the sites. Additionally, it has been demonstrated that the botanical study of Dark Earth units can also provide valuable information on vegetal consumption, in particular fruits. On a broader scale, this integrated geoarchaeologial and archaeobotanical study sheds some light on the process of urbanisation of the Senne alluvial valley between the 11the12th and the 16th century AD.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2017
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Deciphering the influence of evolutionary legacy and functional constraints on the patella: an example in modern rhinoceroses amongst perissodactyls
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In mammals, the patella is the biggest sesamoid bone of the skeleton and is of crucial importance in posture and locomotion, ensuring the role of a pulley for leg extensors while protecting and stabilizing the knee joint. Despite its central biomechanical role, the relation between the shape of the patella and functional factors, such as body mass or locomotor habit, in the light of evolutionary legacy are poorly known. Here, we propose a morphofunctional investigation of the shape variation of the patella among modern rhinoceroses and more generally among perissodactyls, this order of ungulates displaying a broad range of body plan, body mass and locomotor habits, to understand how the shape of this sesamoid bone varies between species and relatively to these functional factors. Our investigation, relying on three dimensional geometric morphometrics and comparative analyses, reveals that, within Rhinocerotidae and between the three perissodactyl families, the shape of the patella strongly follows the phylogenetic affinities rather than variations in body mass. The patellar shape is more conservative than initially expected both within and between rhinoceroses, equids and tapirs. The development of a medial angle, engendering a strong mediolateral asymmetry of the patella, appears convergent in rhinoceroses and equids, while tapirs retain a symmetric bone close to the plesiomorphic condition of the order. This asymmetric patella is likely associated with the presence of a “knee locking” mechanism in both equids and rhinos. The emergence of this condition may be related to a shared locomotor habit (transverse gallop) in both groups. Our investigation underlines unexcepted evolutionary constraints on the shape of a sesamoid bone usually considered as mostly driven by functional factors.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2024 OA
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Reduced contribution of sulfur to the mass extinction associated with the Chicxulub impact event
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The Chicxulub asteroid impact event at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary ˊ66 Myr ago is widely considered responsible for the mass extinction event leading to the demise of the non-avian dinosaurs. Short-term cooling due to massive release of climate-active agents is hypothesized to have been crucial, with S-bearing gases originating from the target rock vaporization considered an important driving force. Yet, the magnitude of the S release remains poorly constrained. Here we empirically estimate the amount of impact-released S relying on the concentration of S and its isotopic composition within the impact structure and a set of terrestrial K-Pg boundary ejecta sites. The average value of 67 ± 39 Gt obtained is ˊ5-fold lower than previous numerical estimates. The lower mass of S-released may indicate a less prominent role for S emission leading to a milder impact winter with key implications for species survival during the first years following the impact.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2025 OA
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Deep marine records of Deccan Trap volcanism before the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction
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The Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary is marked by a large impact and coeval mass extinction event that occurred 66 m.y. ago. Contemporaneous emplacement of the volcanic Deccan Traps also affected global climate before, during, and after the mass extinction. Many questions remain about the timing and eruption rates of Deccan volcanism, its precise forcing of climatic changes, and its signature in the marine geochemical sedimentary proxy record. Here, we compile new and existing mercury (Hg) concentration and osmium isotope (187Os/188Os) records for various stratigraphic sections worldwide. Both geochemical proxies have been suggested to reflect past variations in Deccan volcanic activity. New data from deep marine pelagic carbonate records are compared to contemporaneous records from shallower marine sites correlated through high-resolution cyclostratigraphic age models. The robustness of the proxy records is evaluated on a common timeline and compared to two different Deccan eruption history scenarios. Results show that the global 187Os/188Os signal is clearly reproducible, while the global Hg record does not form a consistent pattern. Moreover, the deep marine sections investigated do not record clear variations in the Hg cycle, particularly in the latest Cretaceous, prior to the extinction event. A detailed reevaluation of the precise depth of the redistribution of impactor-sourced platinum group elements does not exclude the possibility of a minor drop in 187Os/188Os corresponding with a pulse of Deccan volcanism ˊ50,000 years before the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary. Simple Os isotope mass balance modeling indicates that the latest Cretaceous was marked by significant levels of basalt weathering. CO2 sequestration during this weathering likely overwhelmed the emission of Deccan volatiles, thereby contributing to the end of the late Maastrichtian warming.
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RBINS Staff Publications 2025
