We describe a new large-sized species of hypercarnivorous hyainailourine–Kerberos langebadreae gen. & sp. nov.–from the Bartonian (MP16) locality of Montespieu (Tarn, France). These specimens consist of a skull, two hemimandibles and several hind limb elements (fibula, astragalus, calcaneum, metatarsals, and phalanges). Size estimates suggest K. langebadreae may have weighed up to 140 kg, revealing this species as the largest carnivorous mammal in Europe at that time. Besides its very large size, K. langebadreae possesses an interesting combination of primitive and derived features. The distinctive skull morphology of K. langebadreae reflects a powerful bite force. The postcranial elements, which are rarely associated with hyainailourine specimens, indicate an animal capable of a plantigrade stance and adapted for terrestrial locomotion. We performed the first phylogenetic analysis of hyainailourines to determine the systematic position of K. langebadreae and to understand the evolution of the group that includes other massive carnivores. The analysis demonstrates that Hemipsalodon, a North American taxon, is a hyainailourine and is closely related to European Paroxyaena. Based on this analysis we hypothesize the biogeographic history of the Hyainailourinae. The group appeared in Africa with a first migration to Europe during the Bartonian that likely included the ancestors of Kerberos, Paroxyaena and Hemipsalodon, which further dispersed into North America at this time. We propose that the hyainailourines dispersed into Europe also during the Priabonian. These migrants have no ecological equivalent in Europe during these intervals and likely did not conflict with the endemic hyaenodont proviverrines. The discovery of K. langebadreae
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Multi-model ensembles for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface currents (SSC), and water transports have been developed for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea using outputs from several operational ocean forecasting models provided by different institutes. The individual models differ in model code, resolution, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and data assimilation. The ensembles are produced on a daily basis. Daily statistics are calculated for each parameter giving information about the spread of the forecasts with standard deviation, ensemble mean and median, and coefficient of variation. High forecast uncertainty, i.e., for SSS and SSC, was found in the Skagerrak, Kattegat (Transition Area between North Sea and Baltic Sea), and the Norwegian Channel. Based on the data collected, longer-term statistical analyses have been done, such as a comparison with satellite data for SST and evaluation of the deviation between forecasts in temporal and spatial scale. Regions of high forecast uncertainty for SSS and SSC have been detected in the Transition Area and the Norwegian Channel where a large spread between the models might evolve due to differences in simulating the frontal structures and their movements. A distinct seasonal pattern could be distinguished for SST with high uncertainty between the forecasts during summer. Forecasts with relatively high deviation from the multi-model ensemble (MME) products or the other individual forecasts were detected for each region and each parameter. The comparison with satellite data showed that the error of the MME products is lowest compared to those of the ensemble members.
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