The impact of climate change on larval dispersal remains poorly known. The case of sole (Solea solea) is of particular interest because it is one of the most valuable commercial species in the North Sea. It is important to understand how the retention/dispersal of larvae would be affected by climate change in order to propose appropriate measures for stock management. The transport of sole larvae from the spawning grounds to the nurseries is driven by hydrodynamic processes but the final dispersal pattern and larval abundance may be affected by behavioural and environmental factors. A temperature increase could affect for instance the spawning period, the duration of the pelagic stage, the mortality of eggs and larvae, and the match-mismatch with prey fields. Modifications in the magnitude and direction of the wind regime might affect egg and larval retention and dispersal through changes in the hydrodynamics. We compare scenarios of a particle-tracking transport model (IBM) coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic model (COHERENS) to investigate the impact of climate change through temperature increase and wind regime change. The model has been implemented in the area between 48.5°N-4°W and 57°N-10°E over the period 1995 to 2011. A larval mortality parameterization based on remote sensing algal bloom timing is tested. Sensitivity of larval recruitment to climate change is assessed by estimating the impact of a hypothetical (i) temperature increase and (ii) changes in wind magnitude/direction following IPCC scenarios. The results of projections will be discussed relatively to interannual variability.

Abstract of an Oral Presentation or a Poster